just continue watching the show bud.
Iirc, in the hanekawa arc, Araragi said that he cannot fully grasp what's hanekawa true intent despite all her work. There's something unsual about her that terrifies him and he chose senjougahara as a result.
huh? so what did rafael contribute to the theory again? Novak once mentioned that he had to kill rafael, the boy, okgi and badeni but throughout the last two chapters, i dont see anything remarkable about him.