Agreed on the overall point and liked these scenarios. Yes, we can't conjecture much about Misato with what we've got only.
There's also the ~ever so slightly chance~ that she and the members of the class reunion are basicalling staging a loose kidnapping to lure Rika. Their motive is, as Misato's, basically revenge. Victims of past misdeeds.
1 - The stalking tooking a long time to find a breach on her;
2 - The call from Rika to Misato was to ascertain that communications between both parties were working;
3 - The picture was a proof that Misato( and her group) had Sousuke in custody;
The meeting itself is simply staged to hand Sousuke in exchange for Rika herself. However, the Naivety of the group in not knowing Rika's M.O is its own downfall. Intead of appearing, Rika sends the picture to Akiba( knowing that she would do anything for Sousuke), and promptly asks for Shiratori and Shingo for support, knowing they aren't on her( Rika)'s side.
In my headcanon, this arc ends with Sousuke finnaly getting to talk with Shingo, while listening to Misato's story. This finnaly ends his positive character development arc, with Sousuke breaking his "lie", his image of Rika. Thus understanding his world, how it works, and starting to become a better person.
An interesting idea overall, but considering that Rika and Sousuke have at least lost contact and are in conflict, why would they assume that Rika would worry about Sousuke and show up at the event at all?
As for the kidnapping itself, it’s quite obvious at this point that Satsuki is not aware of Misato’s plans (if such plans even exist in the form you described).
Organizing something like this alone, without clear guarantees that no one will interfere - and most importantly, without knowing whether Sousuke informed someone in advance about where he was and with whom - seems extremely reckless.
Regarding the blackmail of Rika Miyase - what exactly are they threatening her with?
A crucial point is missing: does Miyase have a second phone?
Rika apparently called her personal number, and Sousuke’s location and the meeting itself are a huge hint as to who kidnapped him and where he is being held.
Open blackmail combined with revealing your own identity equals a police report. That’s simply absurd and borderline suicidal.
However, if we look at this situation through the eyes of “Misato” or other people seeking revenge against Rika Miyase, it might look something like this.
1) Misato exposed herself by stating that a conflict occurred between the spouses, even though earlier she assured Sousuke that she was very surprised by this fact when he mentioned the quarrel with his wife.
This immediately raises a very important question: how exactly did she learn about it?
(A small clarification: assuming Rika and Misato are not in a trusting relationship.)
Did she witness it directly? That’s complicated. But if we consider that she likely only knows the fact that Rika left the hotel, and if she was nearby (for example, in a neighboring room), she could have heard the noise during Shingo Mori’s beating.
From her perspective, the picture becomes quite simple: shouting and noise, Rika leaving the vacation spot, and possibly Sousuke’s “group” searching for Rika in the hotel, asking people about the whereabouts of the woman in the photo (as in every movie).
And, for instance, Shiratori might have unknowingly told her the final piece of the puzzle.
2) Driven by a desire for revenge - how could they use Sousuke?
We can’t say that Rika Miyase values her husband; she values her image.
But would she risk everything for an almost ex-husband?
His death would rather be a bonus for her and would simplify the task of rebuilding her life.
She could become the eternally respectable widow and continue living carefree, moving to another city or district together with Shiho.
Do they have evidence or information that could help defeat her? Most likely yes. But since they didn’t contact Sousuke for three whole weeks until a “convenient” opportunity appeared, this information by itself probably wouldn’t achieve much - or they weren’t sure Sousuke would be able to perceive it adequately.
So let’s think: how exactly can Sousuke help such a vengeful group? What does he have, besides the rather naïve idea that Rika would risk herself for him?
Their trauma and resentment toward Rika Miyase would have to be extremely serious for them to commit a crime as severe as kidnapping and making open threats - which doesn’t fit well with such obvious “naivety”.
I can come up with one possible way, but unfortunately my justification is very shaky, largely due to my lack of knowledge of legal nuances in Japan.
1) The statute of limitations for Rika Miyase’s “crimes.” From what I’ve found, fraud, sexual crimes, and document forgery fall into categories of around 10 years or slightly more.
It’s possible that their evidence is simply no longer legally valid.
2) Without knowing the internal situation in Sousuke’s life, they can’t be sure that he would testify against his wife, even despite the conflict.
Additionally, as her spouse, Sousuke is not obligated to do so.
3) Or these pieces of evidence might not concern Rika Miyase herself, but other members of her family.
Overall, he can’t really help them directly, except by reporting her disappearance or initiating divorce proceedings.
But that fits very poorly as a form of revenge for a group of people with long-standing grudges.
During their walk together, Misato asks Sousuke whether he himself believes that Rika is capable of committing such “bad” acts.
However, her first theory concerns all the residents of that “house”.
This, in my opinion, once again shows that Sousuke appears to her as a blind infant. And this is the result of concealing the details of the investigation that Sousuke was conducting.
Sousuke knows absolutely nothing about Misato’s life and “investigation,” but Misato also knows nothing about the manga
“My Beloved Wife’s Secret Account”, roughly up to chapter 57.
Based on all this, it seems to me that this “poisoning” is simply Misato’s attempt to shield Sousuke from the “filth” that will come later, after which she doesn’t expect to meet him again - which is why she leaves the photograph as a keepsake.
Yes, they may have seen an additional opportunity in Sousuke - to involve him in a collective lawsuit or other acts of revenge - but if we assume that Misato is internally full of “darkness,” then Sousuke, remaining in ignorance, is someone she would want to preserve in that state. Perhaps she wanted the same fate for herself, but unfortunately that is no longer possible.
And in order to preserve his “mental health,” she - or they - decide to isolate him and send him into a “medicated” sleep while the main events of the “revenge” take place.
That’s basically everything for now. I can’t find a form of revenge in which Sousuke could truly be useful.
Maybe you can recall something or notice something I’ve missed?
Yes, your theory about kidnapping and additional blackmail looks very much like something straight out of a MITA manga, but from a common-sense perspective it feels extremely strange to me - though I may be wrong.
