Look, even from a purely statistical standpoint, Aoba is gifted compared to the general population. If you take 100 random Japanese high-schoolers with zero sports/labor background and asthma and ask how many could ever make it to the top-10 of a national MMA promotion in 3 years, the answer likely would be one at best (which is a very generous estimate; the probability is more likely one in a million). By definition, the fact that Aoba made it already puts him in the top ~1% percentile, meaning he is, at a minimum, genetically gifted compared to genpop.
Now, whether Aoba is more gifted than a relevant comparison group, his opponents. Recently, I’ve been watching interviews with the late Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, and he repeatedly emphasized the importance of starting physical training very young (around 6-8) to build coordination and endurance (interestingly, he was also strongly against hard sparring before ~16). That makes a lot of sense to me from a physiological standpoint, because that's the time when the brain is extremely plastic for motor learning, which would be crucial for grappling.
This is especially relevant for Aoba, since he was portrayed as a technical grappler rather than a brawler who relies on punching power before. He started at 16 with no sports background, no physical job (+ asthma), so he missed the critical brain-muscle connection developmental years that Kenshin, Hachiya, and Kuresihi utilized. The fact that Aoba can now go toe-to-toe with Kuresihi (like counter counters and be close in grappling) means his brain plasticity and motor learning are crazy.
This is the physical advantage that actually makes Aoba special: his nervous system. Combine it with a solid chin (I still think Kureishi is above average in terms of punching power; the author did Gamion dirty) and the ability to beef up fast, and we enter the genetic freak territory.
That’s exactly why I don’t like the author setting Aoba’s base level so low. It would’ve been an easy fix, just make him mediocre at some other sport instead of starting from literal zero.
Right now, it seems future Aoba fights with the next tier of opponents will follow the same scenario as this fight, coz he does not pose that level of takedown threat to make strikers uncomfortable enough (unless he goes to Dagestan/Chechnya/North Ossetia in a year).
He’s gifted especially when it comes to understanding the complexities of ground fighting, but he’s not a genetic freak. There’s so many fights he would’ve lost without a great mentor and a gym willing to support his crazy dream. This also goes for the help he’s gotten from old Adversaries
Also your experiment entirely depends on who they fight, when they fought them, who trains them,back luck with injuries, style match ups,and if they get stonewalled by the business. Like if Aoba fought Yamamoto in his prime he gets sent to the hospital. If his current opponent started MMA much sooner instead of only trying to be like his grandfather for the majority of his life this fight would’ve already been over
Even then, there have been countless people who have been bullied or start off sickly then eventually became competent athletes. Charles Oliveira basically gave childhood illness the middle finger and then went on to make it everybody else’s problem. There’s a crazy dude who became a high-level wrestler, despite being born with one arm. Aoba’s starting point is unfair but it’s not a death sentence.
One of the core aspects of sports is how badly do you want it and the story has repeatedly establish that he is mentally unstable enough to pursue unrealistic goals
Also, keep in mind Aoba only beating local Japanese competition. He’s not beating up ex-UFC champs, TUF winners, Pride veterans, the demons in Thailand or God forbid trying to put hands on people from brazil or Mexico. You are not in the top 1% of combat sports when you not only can’t live off of primarily fighting,still haven’t even won a local belt yet and haven’t even beaten anyone outside your home country.
His run is objectively impressive and he’s definitely cerebrally gifted but putting him in the genetic freak category for being able to win a slugfest with a Jujutsu practitioner with no KOs, bulking up in
SEVERAL years so he doesn’t get bullied as easily again by the real freaks, and a survive a beating from a old man in his 40s just isn’t accurate. Especially considering his first pro loss, one of his major victory being by disqualification and his place next to real genetic freaks like Kenshin, Nueji, and Hachiya who’s stats are way more ridiculous when you remember they’re around the same age.
His journey has always been about taking advantage of being underestimated, thinking through problems, taking advantage of the imperfections of his opponents, luck and being crazy enough to make do with the few advantages he has despite his many disadvantages. You can be an imperfect fighter and still get respectable results. That’s what makes fighting so entertaining in the first place. You don’t HAVE to be Kenshin to win and having a Protagonist that actually hast to push through adversity and Real resistance from his opponents isn’t something that’s bad for a narrative. It’s a requirement to keep things interesting