And my entire point is that to even be close, you need to be able to predict asspulls. If some rando from a nowhere farm showing up in a city ends up butterfree-winging stuff so one year later your target dies from cholesterol levels, you have to be able to predict that said rando would show up and do that.
You aren't close to predicting anything if your target dies before they can join your party. You are just outright wrong. (being close != having a high prediction hitrate. A meterologist's modern models are not 'close' to predicting the future, they are predicting the future with a high probability of being correct, and a low probability of being wrong)
In other words, any later scenes where he is wrong (like the one this chapter), is him lying. And actually having predicted stuff, but acting as if he didn't, to butterfree it out so the future he desires happens.