Usogui - Vol. 24 Ch. 259 - Victory Road
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I see. Sutegama has 9 beads but ask Hyougo to input 8 to create a trap for Usogui (he must bet that Marco managed to give the message to Usogui). Because Usogui has either 6 or 7 beads, he thought that the number must be 13 (Chapter 235) and so he fell for the trap. After knowing that Usogui must have 6 or 7 beads, Sutegama input 15 on Dotty to eliminate 6 and now he believed Usogui has 7 beads, which make him to input 16 on the retina scan.
Or at least, that's what supposed to happened, but considering the last panel...
Or at least, that's what supposed to happened, but considering the last panel...
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So Suteguma knowingly put the wrong number into the Dotty right from the start, playing everyone for a fool and falsely making Baku believe his number had to be lower than 8. That's an interesting gamble for sure, since it's banking on Baku managing to figure out the wrong number to begin with. I guess it was in his predictions that Ranko would tell Marco what the invalid input was.
But now comes the big question, what's going to happen now? Let's say for a moment that 16 is in fact wrong. Then what? Apparently Marco has already tested his input (when did this happen?) of 13 and it was wrong, so Suteguma's input will now just invalidate the game and let Kakerou walk away with it all. Unless of course Ranko lied to Suteguma about the input, which means she's now allied with Baku, but I don't understand what he could possibly have written in the message to manage that.
But now comes the big question, what's going to happen now? Let's say for a moment that 16 is in fact wrong. Then what? Apparently Marco has already tested his input (when did this happen?) of 13 and it was wrong, so Suteguma's input will now just invalidate the game and let Kakerou walk away with it all. Unless of course Ranko lied to Suteguma about the input, which means she's now allied with Baku, but I don't understand what he could possibly have written in the message to manage that.
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Huh... Okay, so the correct answer is 17 (maybe)... I didn't expect Suteguma to lie to Hyougo as well, and to betray his group as well... Kinda messes up my thought process about this whole thing, since he deliberately lied to Hyougo about the first wrongly inputted number in order to lure Usogui into thinking that Suteguma has a certain kind of number, so he predicted that Usogui would eventually find out the wrongly inputted number and lied to his comrade in order to manipulate Usogui's perception of Suteguma's number, while also doing it so that his comrades at the top couldn't input the correct number using Marco's retinal scan or something, since they also didn't know which number Suteguma actually had (since he lied to Hyougo about it). Now the more impressive part is that... Usogui saw this coming, didn't get deceived by Suteguma despite him deceiving his own allies as well, and also planned for it, which is what I'm guessing the note he sent to Ranko was about. Usogui did all of that while also deceiving Suteguma and making him think his number was something different... since I assume that 16 is wrong, because Marco is not fit to fight right now and him and Kaji aren't really enough to take Suteguma on, so I don't think he's planning to take the 50 billion account by force and changing the password or something. Given this, assuming that the part where Marco showed Baku's beads to everybody wasn't a bait (which would only be possible if Baku somehow got ahold of more beads from Kakerou in order to trick Ranko into thinking that he had a different number than he does, although I think that's unlikely if he predicted that this would happen, and he kind of had to have, otherwise he couldn't have planned around it), the whole reason why we thought (and it was portrayed in the chart as if) Suteguma couldn't have 8 or 9 beads was because the wrongly entered password was 8, but if Suteguma was lying to Hyougo this doesn't have to be true at all, since you can enter impossible passwords at the terminal, unlike Dotty; so Suteguma told Hyougo a password that he either knew was wrong or that was impossible, going along with his deception, in order to deceive his comrades and to make Usogui think his number couldn't be 8 or 9. But now that we know that that was a lie, Suteguma's number could very well be 8 or 9, and judging from this chapter, Nowa seems to think that Suteguma has 9 beads (despite it showing in the chart that it's an impossible choice because of the reasons I just stated); It would make sense for me if the double layered trap from Suteguma was in order to get us and Usogui to think that 8 and 9 couldn't be possible answers, precisely because 9 is the correct answer to his number of beads, which would make the correct number of total beads most likely to be 17... But at this point it's clear that I've been totally rused by Suteguma, and probably even more by Usogui, so it could be a higher number as well. That's quite cheeky from the author, to be honest, although it makes sense. And now there's a break too... Can't wait to see what the reveal will be. This manga never disappoints. At least I was able to predict that Suteguma was going to enter 15 in the Dotty, and that 16 would be entered next, although I thought it'd be Usogui and that that would be the correct password, I definitely didn't count on Suteguma's betrayal and lying to Hyougo all the way back then!
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@Veshv He knowingly made Hyougo put in the wrong password at the terminal in order to bait Baku, yeah. And the only way for Usogui to win this is for him to have predicted that this would happen and plan accordingly, so I'm thinking that Ranko is probably lying about having used Marco's chance to enter, probably as per Baku's instructions; I'm guessing he might have told her that Suteguma was planning on betraying them and that the password he told Hyougo was intentionally wrong in order to mislead them, which would explain why Ranko so readily told Marco what the number Hyougo entered was.
Also it makes sense how Kaji is here now and how they've arrived with a helicopter, since escaping from the main entrance isn't really an option right now... He really thought of everything...
BTW: Typo in page 4, second bubble from the right: "againe" instead of "again".
Also it makes sense how Kaji is here now and how they've arrived with a helicopter, since escaping from the main entrance isn't really an option right now... He really thought of everything...
BTW: Typo in page 4, second bubble from the right: "againe" instead of "again".
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@Veshv Suteguma made Hyougo input 8 on the terminal, not Dotty.
@299792458 You're really digging deep into this, and I love it. I wish I was as smart as you when I read this for the first time. I have to ask, do you have any evidence of Suteguma's "8 input" being concluded as a bluff?
@299792458 You're really digging deep into this, and I love it. I wish I was as smart as you when I read this for the first time. I have to ask, do you have any evidence of Suteguma's "8 input" being concluded as a bluff?
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Yeah, you're right tack, putting it into the Dotty would have resulted in his death.
@299792458 What if Baku took some of Suteguma's beads that he discarded while on the first floor or something? To bluff that it was his own? Maybe part of the "things outside of his prediction" in between the first and second round was the fact that Suteguma was faking his number to Hyougo as well?
Another assumption that we have to make here is that Baku definitely knew what Hyougo input before the second round, or else there's no reason for him to decide that the input number is falsified. Would this be due to Marco not actually forgetting, or something like a camera being installed where the terminal is?
@299792458 What if Baku took some of Suteguma's beads that he discarded while on the first floor or something? To bluff that it was his own? Maybe part of the "things outside of his prediction" in between the first and second round was the fact that Suteguma was faking his number to Hyougo as well?
Another assumption that we have to make here is that Baku definitely knew what Hyougo input before the second round, or else there's no reason for him to decide that the input number is falsified. Would this be due to Marco not actually forgetting, or something like a camera being installed where the terminal is?
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@Veshv I suppose it's possible, and it'd be a decent twist, but it depends on how Kakerou feels about giving Usogui any beads after fact. While it does not directly affect the game itself, you might use extra beads to bait your enemy into thinking your number is different, and thus inputting a wrong number at the Dotty, giving you a clue as to what the enemy's number of beads is; they can either think that it's their own fault for falling for it, or that it's unreasonable to help one player out like that. If they think that it's still neutral to do so, they might do it. I don't know how he would've gotten it from Suteguma, unless Suteguma also discarded his and Usogui somehow found out where and retrieved those. It's certainly possible, but that twist doesn't really seem likely to me, but we'll see. Also, I don't get why you think Usogui had to know Hyougo's input in the second round? I mean, he didn't necessarily have to know Hyougo's exact inputted number, just to have a general idea that Suteguma was lying and planning on betraying Ranko, and I believe that would've been enough to get her cooperation with the note; Then he could always wait until Marco came back to tell him the exact number. Tell me if I'm missing something.
@tack215 There's not really conclusive evidence, as far as I know. For all this we have to make a few assumptions, and at the end of the day it's all speculation. However such a plan would be a brilliant ruse, from the author's part and from Suteguma, and it would make sense and be possible considering what we know. Now, the key factor in this assumed ruse is that the terminal allows for wrongly inputted passwords and for even impossible passwords, since it has no rules like the Dotty. So, if Suteguma was planning on betraying his comrades from the beginning - which I assume he did since this is probably about achieving the Karamete, getting the 50 billion, and maybe eventually challenging the leader - it would make sense for him to have been lying to his comrades from the start (and it's already been confirmed - if Nowa's guess is right and/or the amount of beads that were shown for Baku were accurate, so Baku has 6+ beads - that he lied to Hyougo about having 5 beads) and for the 8 input to be a double bluff. From Suteguma's perspective he definitely does not want his comrades to be able to input the correct password while he's in the Dotty, since this would allow them to take the money and the achievement of the Karamete to themselves, ruining his own plans in all likelihood, so he can lie to Hyougo about the correct password, removing the possibility of Hyougo being able to enter another password on his own, while also setting up a trap for Usogui in case he finds out what the wrongly inputted number was; of course it's also entirely possible that Suteguma's number of beads isn't 8 or 9, and if his number is 7 then it would still be a lie to tell his comrades that the number is 8, just that he couldn't be certain that 8 wasn't the correct number unless he himself had 8 or more beads, which would make telling Hyougo that the correct password is 8 a bit of a gamble. Whether or not he would take that gamble is a different matter, but if Suteguma's number really is 7 then I find it unlikely that first of all he would think that Usogui only took out 1 bead, and second of all that he would tell Hyougo the actual correct password (since he was probably planning on betraying them from the start). So, what exactly is the ruse? Well, every single possibility that was crossed out from the chart is valid except for one: the crossing out of the entire 8 and 9 columns for Suteguma's possible bead number; the reason why every other change to the board is valid is because those were all based on inputs from the Dotty, and the rule from the Dotty does not allow for impossible numbers, so from a 3rd person's perspective all those numbers that were ruled out very valid. But there's no such rule for the terminal, so there's still a possibility that Suteguma's bead number is 8 or 9, and it would be a brilliant plan to aim for this blind spot on purpose; you tell your comrades (that you're planning to betray anyway) an impossible number, and bait the enemy into ruling out your bead number as impossible if he ever finds out the wrongly inputted number, essentially creating a blind spot for your own bead number that makes it so the enemy can never guess your number. Obviously none of this is a certainty, and someone said that you can completely figure out Suteguma's and Usogui's beads like 20 chapters ago, which I find super hard to believe, especially since it's hard to not take these character's thought processes and conclusions as word of God, even though that's my fault, haha. In any case, that 8 ruse plan would be very ingenious and it would still make sense with how things are going, Suteguma would just have to have 9 beads and believe that Usogui has 7. Additionally, if the ruse isn't as double layered as this and Suteguma only has 7 beads, then assuming that 16 is wrong, the only possible number left would be 17 (also assuming that the number of beads we saw Marco show was actually correct, namely Usogui has 6+ beads), which is why I'd say it's likely that 17 is the correct password if 16 turns out to be wrong. But of course none of this is certain and the password could still be 17, 18 or 19, and maybe even 9 if what @Veshv mentioned turns out to have been the case and the number of Usogui's beads is lower than what was shown. If there's anything completely wrong about what I've said please let me know. I've kind of passively accepted that my theories will most likely be wrong in the end anyways, but it's still fun, haha. Also, Nowa pretty much assumes that Suteguma pulled off this ruse because he says Suteguma's number is 9, which would only be possible with the ruse I described above, and his statement of "I'm afraid nobody noticed it" and "he fooled everybody" would be consistent with it.
@Lithe Yeah, it's probably going to happen soon. I doubt Kiruma is just going to let Yakou walk away with the Number 0 title.
@Hellsau Very likely, yep.
@tack215 There's not really conclusive evidence, as far as I know. For all this we have to make a few assumptions, and at the end of the day it's all speculation. However such a plan would be a brilliant ruse, from the author's part and from Suteguma, and it would make sense and be possible considering what we know. Now, the key factor in this assumed ruse is that the terminal allows for wrongly inputted passwords and for even impossible passwords, since it has no rules like the Dotty. So, if Suteguma was planning on betraying his comrades from the beginning - which I assume he did since this is probably about achieving the Karamete, getting the 50 billion, and maybe eventually challenging the leader - it would make sense for him to have been lying to his comrades from the start (and it's already been confirmed - if Nowa's guess is right and/or the amount of beads that were shown for Baku were accurate, so Baku has 6+ beads - that he lied to Hyougo about having 5 beads) and for the 8 input to be a double bluff. From Suteguma's perspective he definitely does not want his comrades to be able to input the correct password while he's in the Dotty, since this would allow them to take the money and the achievement of the Karamete to themselves, ruining his own plans in all likelihood, so he can lie to Hyougo about the correct password, removing the possibility of Hyougo being able to enter another password on his own, while also setting up a trap for Usogui in case he finds out what the wrongly inputted number was; of course it's also entirely possible that Suteguma's number of beads isn't 8 or 9, and if his number is 7 then it would still be a lie to tell his comrades that the number is 8, just that he couldn't be certain that 8 wasn't the correct number unless he himself had 8 or more beads, which would make telling Hyougo that the correct password is 8 a bit of a gamble. Whether or not he would take that gamble is a different matter, but if Suteguma's number really is 7 then I find it unlikely that first of all he would think that Usogui only took out 1 bead, and second of all that he would tell Hyougo the actual correct password (since he was probably planning on betraying them from the start). So, what exactly is the ruse? Well, every single possibility that was crossed out from the chart is valid except for one: the crossing out of the entire 8 and 9 columns for Suteguma's possible bead number; the reason why every other change to the board is valid is because those were all based on inputs from the Dotty, and the rule from the Dotty does not allow for impossible numbers, so from a 3rd person's perspective all those numbers that were ruled out very valid. But there's no such rule for the terminal, so there's still a possibility that Suteguma's bead number is 8 or 9, and it would be a brilliant plan to aim for this blind spot on purpose; you tell your comrades (that you're planning to betray anyway) an impossible number, and bait the enemy into ruling out your bead number as impossible if he ever finds out the wrongly inputted number, essentially creating a blind spot for your own bead number that makes it so the enemy can never guess your number. Obviously none of this is a certainty, and someone said that you can completely figure out Suteguma's and Usogui's beads like 20 chapters ago, which I find super hard to believe, especially since it's hard to not take these character's thought processes and conclusions as word of God, even though that's my fault, haha. In any case, that 8 ruse plan would be very ingenious and it would still make sense with how things are going, Suteguma would just have to have 9 beads and believe that Usogui has 7. Additionally, if the ruse isn't as double layered as this and Suteguma only has 7 beads, then assuming that 16 is wrong, the only possible number left would be 17 (also assuming that the number of beads we saw Marco show was actually correct, namely Usogui has 6+ beads), which is why I'd say it's likely that 17 is the correct password if 16 turns out to be wrong. But of course none of this is certain and the password could still be 17, 18 or 19, and maybe even 9 if what @Veshv mentioned turns out to have been the case and the number of Usogui's beads is lower than what was shown. If there's anything completely wrong about what I've said please let me know. I've kind of passively accepted that my theories will most likely be wrong in the end anyways, but it's still fun, haha. Also, Nowa pretty much assumes that Suteguma pulled off this ruse because he says Suteguma's number is 9, which would only be possible with the ruse I described above, and his statement of "I'm afraid nobody noticed it" and "he fooled everybody" would be consistent with it.
@Lithe Yeah, it's probably going to happen soon. I doubt Kiruma is just going to let Yakou walk away with the Number 0 title.
@Hellsau Very likely, yep.
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@299792458 Interesting insight on Suteguma's tactics. I love how you acknowledge how much of a ballsy and ingenious move Suteguma's 8 input is. And ah, the person you mentioned is actually me. It is partially true, you know. You could technically deduce Suteguma and Baku's numbers at that point. Although you're right in the sense that it's probably impossible to accurately determine Baku's number. You're the most accurate person I've seen in terms of analyzing this whole match, and you're so close to uncovering the match that I want to give you a hint. There is already conclusive evidence of Suteguma's intentions of the 8 input. At the time of my comment about being able to deduce both numbers, it was ready planted by the author. Find that, and you've basically solved the match by yourself. The fact that you've already managed to get this far is already mindblowing for me, and I would love to see you getting to the answer by yourself, since I've personally never seen anybody reaching this far without the author's explanation.
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@tack215 Thanks! After reading your comment I went back to the previous chapters and I think I found the conclusive hint: Suteguma's ability. We know that Suteguma's ability can update as soon as he determines whether or not he can defeat someone, just as it happened with the drunk man that used to rape him - as soon as he was able to see his face he realized he could defeat him, and he did. The exact same thing happened with Baku after he chose 13 in the Dotty. Meaning that from Suteguma's point of view his victory was guaranteed. Now that we know that the 8 input was an insane ruse, and that Suteguma went on to enter 15 in the Dotty and 16 at the terminal, here's why it would guarantee his victory (in his mind): Suteguma's bait had seemingly worked. If Baku believed that 8 or 9 were impossible choices due to the terminal input, there would be exactly two possibilities left where choosing 13 would be a sure victory for Baku, if Baku's bead number was 6 or 7. If this was the case, then after Baku chooses 13 and it's shown to be wrong, Suteguma's victory would be guaranteed, since all he had to do was choose 15 in the Dotty: if it's wrong then it means Baku must have 7 beads and that 16 is the correct choice and all he has to do is enter it into the terminal (since Baku was weak and injured and Suteguma still had "allies" at the top, he was probably certain that even if Baku knew the correct number he wouldn't be able to follow him or enter the number before him), and if it's right then Baku dies then and there and Suteguma wins anyway. So as soon as Baku chooses 13 Suteguma's ability activates and he can see Baku's face clearly, guaranteeing his victory. How's that?
Now if that's the case, the only real question remaining is: how the fuck did Baku figure out that Suteguma's 8 input was a bait, and how did he plan accordingly? I mean, he didn't necessarily have had to know, I guess. The contents of the note to Ranko could simply have been that Suteguma was planning on betraying them and/or that he intentionally told Hyougo a wrong number and told her to confirm it if she didn't believe him by simply asking Hyougo what Suteguma told him, and maybe telling her that he (Baku) is planning on choosing 13, and if Suteguma makes it to the top it will prove that he lied to Hyougo, since if Baku's bead number is 8 (which Ranko would know, since Marco showed her Baku's beads), and Suteguma was 5, 13 would definitely kill him. Ranko didn't really have that much to lose here, since she would've been able to strike a deal with Usogui if he had killed Suteguma, and if Suteguma came upstairs Usogui still had something planned to win (I think), and if Usogui was wrong about Suteguma betraying them he would've died anyway and she would've won along with Suteguma; all she had to do was throw the doll down, confirm with Hyougo, then hand Suteguma the tranq gun (although this is the hardest part to explain, I'm skeptical about whether or not she would trust Usogui enough to let herself by knocked out by someone who is planning on betraying her simply because of one note, maybe there is another twist incoming about this). This increases my suspicion that Baku's number is 8, and that he baited Suteguma into thinking he had 7 by choosing 13 in the Dotty (and making him think that he was only out to kill him) after realizing that the 8 input was a ruse, and baiting him into using his last chance to put in 16, confirming for Baku that his number is 9, allowing him to win with 17 (assuming that Ranko's statement about Marco having tried 13 already was a lie, which I think it is) using Marco's entry chance.
EDIT: Ah! That would explain why Ranko was desperate about saving Marco, since Usogui can't use his eye for the retinal scan and she knew that Suteguma was going to betray them, so if Marco died they would lose their chance of winning... Also explains why Ranko hesitated on immediately using Marco's chance to enter the correct password, despite knowing both Suteguma and Baku's bead number (allegedly), she couldn't be sure that Suteguma didn't lie to Hyougo, the note probably mentioned that. I've edited this a couple of times... But I realized another thing: the note might not have explicitly stated that Suteguma was going to betray them, since Leo also read the note but was going to let Marco die if Ranko didn't interfere, only Ranko seemed to have figured out that they couldn't rely on Suteguma anymore, and the note definitely played a role in that.
Now if that's the case, the only real question remaining is: how the fuck did Baku figure out that Suteguma's 8 input was a bait, and how did he plan accordingly? I mean, he didn't necessarily have had to know, I guess. The contents of the note to Ranko could simply have been that Suteguma was planning on betraying them and/or that he intentionally told Hyougo a wrong number and told her to confirm it if she didn't believe him by simply asking Hyougo what Suteguma told him, and maybe telling her that he (Baku) is planning on choosing 13, and if Suteguma makes it to the top it will prove that he lied to Hyougo, since if Baku's bead number is 8 (which Ranko would know, since Marco showed her Baku's beads), and Suteguma was 5, 13 would definitely kill him. Ranko didn't really have that much to lose here, since she would've been able to strike a deal with Usogui if he had killed Suteguma, and if Suteguma came upstairs Usogui still had something planned to win (I think), and if Usogui was wrong about Suteguma betraying them he would've died anyway and she would've won along with Suteguma; all she had to do was throw the doll down, confirm with Hyougo, then hand Suteguma the tranq gun (although this is the hardest part to explain, I'm skeptical about whether or not she would trust Usogui enough to let herself by knocked out by someone who is planning on betraying her simply because of one note, maybe there is another twist incoming about this). This increases my suspicion that Baku's number is 8, and that he baited Suteguma into thinking he had 7 by choosing 13 in the Dotty (and making him think that he was only out to kill him) after realizing that the 8 input was a ruse, and baiting him into using his last chance to put in 16, confirming for Baku that his number is 9, allowing him to win with 17 (assuming that Ranko's statement about Marco having tried 13 already was a lie, which I think it is) using Marco's entry chance.
EDIT: Ah! That would explain why Ranko was desperate about saving Marco, since Usogui can't use his eye for the retinal scan and she knew that Suteguma was going to betray them, so if Marco died they would lose their chance of winning... Also explains why Ranko hesitated on immediately using Marco's chance to enter the correct password, despite knowing both Suteguma and Baku's bead number (allegedly), she couldn't be sure that Suteguma didn't lie to Hyougo, the note probably mentioned that. I've edited this a couple of times... But I realized another thing: the note might not have explicitly stated that Suteguma was going to betray them, since Leo also read the note but was going to let Marco die if Ranko didn't interfere, only Ranko seemed to have figured out that they couldn't rely on Suteguma anymore, and the note definitely played a role in that.
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