Ard's madness did help him against Merlin's plots. If Merlin's plan to subjucate Rosice largely depended on Domorgar attacking Rosice first and then the southern kingdom following suit, with the Exus tribes not coming to Rosice's aid, then all of that is now a wasted effort. Of course Rozel not acting directly does depend on the success of those unknown Galia people. Technically Rozel might be able to spare people to help Ard, but who would want to help a madman?
There's nothing quite like a mad man with actual power to upset the game board.
Let's just be thankful that this lunatic doesn't have anything like thermobaric weapons. Those are doable in this time period - use a trebuchet to launch a sack of flour, rigged to open at just the right time, and then chuck a fire arrow in there.
Especially if word gets out that Ard became king though underhanded means. It would cause Rozel's nobles and underlings to question and doubt him, at least behind his back and possibly have to deal with internal backlash in his kingdom because of it.
I get the sneaking suspicion that they do know. Spider girl's assassination of Paks was only subtle in the sense that she was never even seen. It'll be obvious that someone killed him. At which point, people will only need to ask themselves, "Who benefits the most?"
And with Carlo still being the most legally viable candidate...
Ard is screwed. His big mistake is that he should have gone after Carlo first and foremost. His death would have been the easiest one of all to write off, what with being practically exiled to the harshest wilderness of their nation.
He still would have had to act quickly, but once he had word that Carlo was dead, that would be the exact moment to have Paks assassinated. Any sooner risks having his plan fall through if Carlo survived, and any later risks Paks being alerted to Carlo's death.
But instead, he tried to take both out at the same time, not realizing that no plan of action survives first contact with the enemy. In this case, Carlo's people were competent and were able to alert him to the surprise attack with enough time for him to get to safety.
It will not surprise me if the people formerly in Paks's faction are waiting for the perfect moment to turn their swords against Ard.
I just hope that we see the next chapters sooner rather than another months long wait.
(Ironic that it was nine months from the previous update to seeing Almus's children born.)