AI, in it's current form, is simply a convenient alibi for cost cutting layoffs.We got the AI ice age now
History do rhythms
You underestimate the impact of AI in current form, yes the AI is dumb now and due to limitations is unlikely to have much improvements for a while.AI, in it's current form, is simply a convenient alibi for cost cutting layoffs.
It's also important to remember that AI goes beyond chat bots. There were neural networks that can identify cancer before a human could hope to years ago.You underestimate the impact of AI in current form, yes the AI is dumb now and due to limitations is unlikely to have much improvements for a while.
The real problem is the training data. There was an attempt to have ai identity cancer, after training the AI, it concluded that if there is a ruler in the picture, it is cancer.It's also important to remember that AI goes beyond chat bots. There were neural networks that can identify cancer before a human could hope to years ago.
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If that were actually the case, the stories would all be "we can do 3 times more for the same labor cost, productivity through the roof, rah rah rah". They're not, so someone's lying.[...]
But the true value of AI isn't it directly replacing people, but in same way automation does, as an assistant it can make it that 1 person can do the job of 3.
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We are still in early days of AI adoption in workflow, so you aren't going to see huge jumps in productivity. Especially since many large businesses overhired to facilitate growth but don't need them anymore. Even businesses who are doing well financially are firing people due to AI.If that were actually the case, the stories would all be "we can do 3 times more for the same labor cost, productivity through the roof, rah rah rah". They're not, so someone's lying.
Instead, it's as the OP said: suppose you're a CEO and business is not going well and you want to fire folks to cut cost. You could do that as is, but then the market knows business is not going well, the stock drops, and so your compensation drops. Bad for you. So instead, you make up a story about productivity gains through AI making people redundant. The end result is the same: you still fire folks to cut costs, but now your peers call you a visionary, the stock goes up, you can buy another yacht and life is good.
You don't need an investment in the millions to run AI locally. Your PC is already likely doing AI locally, just usually simple tasks like grammar checking, code completion, or translating.I feel that the problem right now is that AI is a solution looking for a problem, which would be good if not for the fact that they literally cost humoungous amount of resources.
Unlike the dot com bubble or the Sub-prime mortgage crisis, there's two different counters ticking down.
Not only is there one for total investment, there's also one for total resources required.
Everybody can host their own server at home and make a webpage.
A small team can definitely build a house.
But you need investments in the millions to even run an AI locally.
So I think that bubble will burst faster than the other bubbles.
The problem is where does that leave you (or me)? Will we be capitalizing on the bubble bursting? Or will we be part of the collateral damage.