Corona-kun's Recollections

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if there's no vaccine, Maybe this will become real 10 years latter ?
seriously ...
 
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@yarielist
Most people recover. Unless this thing's rate of mutation brings up something unexpected, this isn't the one that'll do in humanity, much less in 10 years.
 
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@ghostkun ...
Dunno at your place, but in my place, death rate is quite high and mammal animal get infected too ...
If it infect chicken, cow, goat, etc then we must become vegan ...
 
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Oh-okay... I guess. At least people will finally stop talking about ebola
 
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@yarielist: even the worst reported death rates in the world — currently the US and the UK, both of which elected right-wing morons in their most recent elections, everybody else take note — the death rate is currently less than 6% of people who contract the disease. (US as of today: 1.23 million confirmed cases, 73566 deaths.) Although it’s true that some unknown number of people who have the disease will die rather than recover, it’s also true that we’re 99.99% certain that there are a lot of people out there who “have” it but have no symptoms at all, and therefore will never even be tested — the original estimate was that 25% of cases had no symptoms. Later it was raised to 30%, and then to 35%. Recently, France has suggested that the number is closer to 40%, and one of the warships which had an outbreak and had complete testing of all personnel showed that 60% of people with the disease showed no symptoms. So anywhere from a third to two thirds of humanity will never so much as cough even if absolutely everybody in the world catches coronavirus — and the French data suggests that not getting sick from cornonavirus isn’t really linked to pre-existing health issues.

Either the largest or the next-largest group (depending on how large the asymptomatic group really is) is the people who get sick, but not enough to be hospitalized. Currently, the figures show that even among people over 85, less than 20% of coronavirus patients need hospitalization, and that somewhere over 95% of people who show symptoms will recover.

Now do the math: if coronavirus spreads to absolutely everybody in the entire world, at least a third of us still won’t show symptoms. Humanity has already survived something that only let a third of the population survive (the Black Death), albeit with a lot of upheaval. But even if you assume that 20% of everybody who shows symptoms, not just senior citizens, needs hospitalization, and that the hospitals are so overwhelmed that all of them die, and that only a third of people are asymptomatic, that still means a death rate of about 13% of the population. Civilization will survive, even if it’s traumatic.

tl;dr version: No, this is not an apocalypse. It’s going to be horrible, but most of us are not going to die of coronavirus. Even if you push the worst numbers possible it’s still going to be less devastating than several wars and diseases have been in the past. Get a grip on yourself.
 
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@ZeeVee :
that presuming the virus will NOT mutated again ...
if it goes mutated into even more deadly version, that 30% might also gone ...

it seems mutated several times after the original get spread ...
Goes to animal, have more than one type / several / a lot / non symptoms ...
before none of this happen, but lately it get found more and more ...

well, at least the victim won't become zombie, but maybe the non symptoms one might be even dangerous considering it is a "healthy" living walking disease ...
dunno what happen in next year ... contaminating fish and sea water ?
 
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@Scritfy: the coronavirus death tolls are demonstrably political. Not only did the US and UK get to have the worst numbers in the world through right-wing health policy (consistent cuts to public healthcare and welfare over the last several decades to produce a population with little recourse in the event of illness, refusal to properly listen to scientists when the advice seemed to be bad for “the economy” — which really means “the rich” anyway, weak and delayed restrictions to avoid harming “the economy” which permitted more spread, and an immediate push to open things back up to benefit “the economy”, etc.) but all the fishy stuff going on in other countries has likewise been political. Before US and UK cases skyrocketed, Iran was a major hotspot for coronavirus, largely because the Iranian leadership didn’t want to look bad and muzzled doctors and emergency workers to try and keep the spread of the disease secret (a move the UK and the US have followed).

All public problems are political, more or less by definition. People who think you can separate that out of them have brain rot.

@yarilist: Yeah, sure, and AIDS might become airborne and kill us all in a month — somehow we’ve known about it for decades and that hasn’t happened. So for they’ve only found two varieties of this particular coronavirus in humans — and the second one appeared no later than February, before the number of infections worldwide was even close to a million. The mutation rate is very low. And animal spread seems to be both extremely rare and harmless so far. (Except to the rare animals which actually get sick, as opposed to merely carrying it.)

And for that matter: in the worst-case scenario you’re picturing, what would happen eventually is that only the people who are asymptomatic would remain. That would be a lot of deaths, but eventually we wouldn’t so much have herd immunity as just a total lack of response from humans.
 
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@ZeeVee
AIDS only infecting via blood, wound and sex ...
who even says through breathing ?

Let's just find if in Sept J&J start their work or in next year Jan they can deliver their promise ...
also Covic asymptomatic isn't so rare, but not as much as 30% either ...
certain animal like dog also have Covic asymptomatic ...
cat have it worse ... other mammal have chance to get infected too ...
and I don't even think it's a rare case ...
7 wild cat in my area, 4 have symptom, and 3 of them dead because suffocated ...
the rest don't look well either ... (usually if they sick, I'll just give antibiotic, but it don't have any effect in this case)

Also Doing good health care don't make you immune to covic ...
it only reduce symptom, even if you looks healthy after treatment the virus will stay since you will become "asymptomatic" trait ...
this also rare, since the death rate (in my country) is high even after treatment ...

BTW, the sum of death rate because Covic-19 in this whole world already pass 1M ...
the infected even more than 3x of that ...
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2019
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@yarielist: even the worst reported death rates in the world — currently the US and the UK, both of which elected right-wing morons in their most recent elections, everybody else take note — the death rate is currently less than 6% of people who contract the disease. (US as of today: 1.23 million confirmed cases, 73566 deaths.) Although it’s true that some unknown number of people who have the disease will die rather than recover, it’s also true that we’re 99.99% certain that there are a lot of people out there who “have” it but have no symptoms at all, and therefore will never even be tested — the original estimate was that 25% of cases had no symptoms. Later it was raised to 30%, and then to 35%. Recently, France has suggested that the number is closer to 40%, and one of the warships which had an outbreak and had complete testing of all personnel showed that 60% of people with the disease showed no symptoms. So anywhere from a third to two thirds of humanity will never so much as cough even if absolutely everybody in the world catches coronavirus — and the French data suggests that not getting sick from cornonavirus isn’t really linked to pre-existing health issues.

Either the largest or the next-largest group (depending on how large the asymptomatic group really is) is the people who get sick, but not enough to be hospitalized. Currently, the figures show that even among people over 85, less than 20% of coronavirus patients need hospitalization, and that somewhere over 95% of people who show symptoms will recover.

Now do the math: if coronavirus spreads to absolutely everybody in the entire world, at least a third of us still won’t show symptoms. Humanity has already survived something that only let a third of the population survive (the Black Death), albeit with a lot of upheaval. But even if you assume that 20% of everybody who shows symptoms, not just senior citizens, needs hospitalization, and that the hospitals are so overwhelmed that all of them die, and that only a third of people are asymptomatic, that still means a death rate of about 13% of the population. Civilization will survive, even if it’s traumatic.

tl;dr version: No, this is not an apocalypse. It’s going to be horrible, but most of us are not going to die of coronavirus. Even if you push the worst numbers possible it’s still going to be less devastating than several wars and diseases have been in the past. Get a grip on yourself.
For all that rambling about right wing bad hur durr you somehow missed to mention that Trump was the one to order the vaccines and call for people get vaccinated
 

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