I dont think my explanation for why its gambling was clear enough but theres a ton of factors because it literally involves everything going on in the country and multiplying that with every other country because currency price is relative to other currencies. Unless you see every path into the near future it is gambling. There have been people who have done this successfully by doing “low risk” trades but these are called picking pennies from a railroad (or some other variation) because the second it fails it fails hard. A famous example was the yen carry trade which you can just google because I’m too lazy to explain it but it basically caused a massive crash in savings because it was thought to be safe with low return.