Damn, I was really hoping Mira was a sure vote in Kyouka's corner. Guess her being friends with both of them swung quite a bit, and Ren (if she did it on purpose) made a genius move in convincing her to run separately. This way not only does Kyouka lose Mira's vote, but she also risks the "progressive" vote getting split between them while the "conservative" elements stick with Ren regardless.
Ren's votes: Herself, PM, Minister of Defense, likely Bell
Kyouka's votes: Herself, Varvara, Tenka,
Undecided: Konomi, Fubuki,
Mira's vote: probably just herself lol