Moto-Sekai Ichii Sub-chara Ikusei Nikki ~Hi-Player, Isekai wo Kouryaku-chu!~ - Vol. 7 Ch. 45

[Stickman]

From Chapter 41.

An 0.0001% chance, is equal to 1/10,000,000, or "one out of ten million tries." Which means the chance of taming it with only 4600 tries is around 0.045%, or success for about 1 out of 2000 people who try 4600 times. So he got pretty lucky in the original game.

If he continues hunting, the odds of him getting the wolf after X tries is as follows:

%Chance	#Tries	#Days (18/day)
0.02% or 1/5000	2000 (current)	111 days (~4 months)
0.045% or ~1/2000	4600	255 days (8.5 months)
0.1% or 1/1000	10,000	1 year, ~6 months
0.995% or ~1/100	100,000	15+ years
4.8% or ~1/20	500,000	76+ years

So assuming my math is actually right, he could spend the rest of his life and have less than a 5% chance of success.

Also assuming that percent chance of taming they listed was actually correct and not just some number they threw out without thinking about it.

But no one would do something like that.

(If the odds were something like 0.025% or 1/4000, then at 4600 attempts, he'd have a 68% chance of having succeeded.)

 

[popo53414]

He needs to touch some grass and some dark elf after returning from this.

 

[Maplefield]

C R A Z Y 🤯

---

Meh. I've been trying to tame my dragon for many years, but it always comes back up. Pretty sure I've gone past 2000 attempts.

 

[WhimsiCat]

An 0.0001% chance, is equal to 1/10,000,000, or "one out of ten million tries." Which means the chance of taming it with only 4600 tries is around 0.045%, or success for about 1 out of 2000 people who try 4600 times. So he got pretty lucky in the original game.

(If the odds were something like 0.025% or 1/4000, then at 4600 attempts, he'd have a 68% chance of having succeeded.)

Umm...so...just saying, but your math is wrong.

0.0001% is 1/1,000,000

Even your own 0.025% is still 'only' at 1/4000
so 0.0025% would be 1/40,000
0.00025% = 1/400,000
0.000025%, which is lower than 0.0001%, would still be 1/4,000,000

 

[Qelix]

Also assuming that percent chance of taming they listed was actually correct

Well, I'm sorry to say, but your math is incorrect. Though you only made a singel mistake:

0.0001% = 1/1,000,000 not 1/10,000,000
Everything else is absolutly fine, as far as I see it.

%Chance	#Tries	#Days (18/day)
0.2% or 1/500	2000 (current)	~111 days (~4 months)
0.46% or ~1/217	4600	~255 days (~8.5 months)
1% or 1/100	10,000	~1 year, 6 months
10% or 1/10	100,000	~15+ years
50% or 1/2	500,000	~76+ years

EDIT:
WAIT! NO! That is also wrong. This is stochastics and I hate it. You have to reroll each attempt. With the above logic you'll reach a 100% chance at 1,000,000 attempts which is not true. Let me rethink that.

 

[Kaarme]

If the cloud reduced the HP to one, from anyone touching it, how could the dark wolf still take three hits from an arrow? Are you telling me the damage was a small fraction of 1 HP? After all, the dark wolf was definitely touching her own cloud as well, it being emitted by her.

 

[Qelix]

~0.2% or ~1/500.5	2000 (current)	~111 days (~4 months)
~0.46% or ~1/217.9	4600	~255 days (~8.5 months)
~1% or ~1/100.5	10,000	~1 year, 6 months
~9.52% or ~1/10.5	100,000	~15+ years
~39.35% or ~1/2.5	500,000	~76+ years

And to think I had the math down these days, because I was analysing Shadowrun 2.Ed and 3.Ed dice rolling rules. Yet I fell for it.
The formular is:
If p is the chance of success (so p=0.000001) then the chance of being unsuccessful is pu = 1-p (pu = 0.999999). So the chance of being unsuccessful goes down with each attempt n. If n=2 then pu(2) = pu * pu = pu^2. => pu( n ) = pu * (total of n-times) * pu= pu^n. To get the chance of successes after n-attempts again, you subtract the probability of still being unsuccessful after n-attempts from 1 again. So:

ps( n ) = 1 - pu^n = 1 - (1-p)^n

I hate stochastics, but while I have the knowledge at hand, I brag... share it.

 

[cheesecakegood]

You have to wonder a bit about the narrative necessity of taking so long here

 

[Anything_Random]

If the cloud reduced the HP to one, from anyone touching it, how could the dark wolf still take three hits from an arrow? Are you telling me the damage was a small fraction of 1 HP? After all, the dark wolf was definitely touching her own cloud as well, it being emitted by her.

The darkness wolf is immune to darkness magic, it was said in the LN but i guess the manga cut it for brevity.

 

[SGR]

Plot progress: 0.

 

[Salfaro]

WRT all the calculation talk: It's always possible that the "one in a million" chance isn't really real, either. One thing that's been mentioned a few times in this manga (even this chapter) is that assumed knowledge in the game isn't necessarily correct, and even though it's "determined" later on that the chance is that low, it's always possible that the way this was determined was by the collective efforts of thousands of players other than Second not succeeding, and adding up to millions of attempts. It's always possible that it's just a super low chance with an added stipulation like "only on can be tamed", or something.

Though I do agree it's more likely it's just an author flub.

 

[monkey123]

What a man of culture he is craving for his M girl.

 

[blacksaber79]

He needs to touch some grass and some dark elf after returning from this.

damn it man! I thought there was a bug on my screen

 

[TheVanguardKing]

1-(1-0.000001)^X attempts

At 4600 attempts he had a 0.46% chance of success.

 

[x_renon_x]

MC spent 3 months in the ruins after last chapter
Scan group sticking to story lore?

Anyways, I know that Kirei Scan is just holding up the rest of the chapters and are already done with them.
I bet you that when someone snipes this manga from them, they'd release all of them.

 

[AnotherDuck]

You have to wonder a bit about the narrative necessity of taking so long here

Yeah, it's taking a bit too long at this point, and this chapter didn't really add anything other than a feeling of, "this is taking too long".

 

[malfoym]

ma man addicted and he knows it, gotta keep grinding for that waifu

 

[zStella]

Seriously!! Is this a quarterly series?? Releasing only once every 4 months or something?

8 chapters in a year? Oh man I hope everything is okay with the author.

The magazine this is serialized on is monthly.
Scanlator group is 7 chapters behind.

the raws are currently up to 52. Kirei tends to be a little slow on translating. But that's fine, they still do good quality.

No, it just a 1 monthly update of raw manga, it just the translation group dont release it

The wait for these translations are brutal.

MC spent 3 months in the ruins after last chapter
Scan group sticking to story lore?

Anyways, I know that Kirei Scan is just holding up the rest of the chapters and are already done with them.
I bet you that when someone snipes this manga from them, they'd release all of them.

I sincerely apologize for the delay. Considering that I am the sole translator of some 20+ series while being extremely understaffed on the editing side and having to cope with other real-life issues, many of these series were stuck in limbo, but not forgotten. If you check the upload history of the group, I do post releases on a semi-regular basis, but I have to jump around between each series to be fair to every reader of each different series.

I do not withheld chapters on purpose except for batch release purposes, which are not common. There is no benefit to delaying chapters for anyone. It can sometimes take a while to get to each series inside the perpetual queue, when other more important matters in my life get involved or there are editing delays. Please do not make baseless assumptions as it only leads to the unnecessary spread of misinformation and hate. Only those in my close circle know what I am actually going through. I have a life just like everyone else, and I would appreciate if people could understand that.

At the moment, we only have three more series that are backlogged (which I am working on as quickly as possible), and then I will be trying to catch up with each series as a whole. Things in my non-Internet life have cooled down a bit, giving me more of a window to work on translation. Thank you ahead of time for your continued patience.

 

[ForTheJerusalem]

He's gonna fuck the wolf.

 

[yoa]

Come on bro!!!!