Usogui - Vol. 31 Ch. 333 - The Commencement Of The Silence

[MangaDex]

 

[299792458]

Thank you for an amazing batch. As someone predicted, the simple strategy to increase your odds as a player was used, and this banker did not realize it. If you don't match your target player's 1st round movement in the 2nd round (your target should preferably be someone you know or suspect knows this strategy), then you give them a free out for the 3rd round as well. I assume the more sophisticated mind games will happen when all players and the banker are aware of the strategy. I wonder how Baku will win. We finally got the conditions for becoming King as well, so now we know how high the bar is set. It seems like real combat is also a part of it, so there is more to the vest. I also wonder how Baku will level up, I assume he will either gamble his way up or use Marco if those two are allowed.

Anyways, see you guys on the next one. Take care.

Also, first.

 

[golden_cow2]

Edit: Because I'm stupid, that's why.

Spoiler

The odds should be 37.5% regardless. There's psychology involved, of course, but no more-so than Rock-Paper-Scissors. The fact that this is a multiplayer game also probably affects things, but I'm too lazy to figure that one out.

Let's assume there's only one player and one dealer. An arbitrary first round might look like this:

D - P
^   - v

Both people picked a direction randomly so the Player had a 75% chance to survive.

Both players are now faced with a choice. The Player (P) can choose to match the Dealer (D)'s first move, or defect and pick a different option. Similarly, the Dealer can choose to match the Player's first move or defect and pick a different option. This gives four cases: Match-Match, Match-Defect, Defect-Match, and Defect-Defect.

(D)Match-(P)Match
Both players choose to match the other's previous move, so the 2nd round looks like this:

D - P
^  - v
v   - ^

In the 3rd round, both players randomly pick from '<' or '>', giving the player a 50% chance of success. The 4th round is an automatic success if the 3rd is passed.
This gives a total success rate of 75% * 50% = 37.5%

(D)Match-(P)Defect
The dealer sacrifices the 2nd round be deliberately matching the Player's first move. The player chooses randomly from '<' or '>'. Let's say '<'.

D - P
^   - v
v   - <

In the 3rd round, the dealer can pick from (<, >) and the player can pick from (^, >). If the player picks '^', they lose if the dealer picks '<' causing '>' to be the only option in the 4th round. If the player picks '>' they lose if the dealer picks '>' as well. Either way, that's a 50% chance of success for a total success rate of 75% * 50% = 37.5%.

(D)Defect-(P)Match
The player stays safe in the second round and the dealer randomly picks from '<' or '>'. Let's say '<'.

D - P
^  -  v
<   - ^

In the 3rd round, the dealer can pick from (v, >) and the player can pick from (<, >). If the player picks '<', they lose if the dealer picks 'v' causing '>' to be the only option in the 4th round. If the player picks '>' they lose if the dealer picks '>' as well. Either way, that's a 50% chance of success for a total success rate of 75% * 50% = 37.5%.

(D)Defect-(P)Defect
Both players choose to defect, meaning both randomly choose from '<' or '>'. There's a 50% chance of them choosing differently, something like this:

D - P
^  -  v
<   - >

The 3rd and 4th rounds are a formality; the player matches the dealer's two previous moves. Having to survive the 50% chance, however, leads to a total success of 75% * 50% = 37.5%.

 

[Qeye]

I feel like that arc is gonna be my favorite one so far, thanks for the hard work as usual Team Duwang

 

[failninja21]

@golden_cow2

Why do you keep on mentioning the 4th round? There is no 4th round.

 

[Ominous]

This game actually is more complicated now that everyone is positioned on stairs and the rule that players lose if they "look backward" or "talk." It's actually a mindgame for the players as to who the banker would rather settle for out of the bets. Baku said that he lost in the second round, but from Pg. 16 we see that the banker was confused as to why Baku turned his left and not the banker's left. Either Baku was lying about losing the second round or he purposely chose the same direction as he did in the first round.

 

[catx3]

@299792458
Hold up, this batch will be going on for a bit longer! At least up to 335, but our translators are going pretty crazy fast, so we'll see.

The vest/combat thing is quite mysterious. I can't imagine right now how the author'll blend real combat with the fantasy class/stats system. Champ said stamina was needed, but seeing as Baku has none of that, there must be some way around it as you said. Maybe by indeed using Marco to win 2v2s or something. Or straight up paying people to lose against him?

 

[BossCrab]

Interesting game!

Some word vomit:

Spoiler

So to recap:
1st round: Banker points left. All players except Travolta avoid it.
2nd round: The two 1 coin slaves face left because they know it is safe. Despite having a "safe" direction available, Baku faces upwards and loses this round.
3rd round: Pachanga is forced into a 50/50 and loses, while Champ has a safe direction in the final round and easily wins. We don't know which round Tobita lost in, I'm assuming he also lost a 50/50 here.

The explanation for the game sets it up as if the 2nd round will have the banker and player both choose what the other chose in round 1, the player because its safe and the banker to get rid of a safe direction. The basic strategy for the banker (a simple strategy our slaves will probably generally follow until more competitive players like Ryuusei jump in) is probably to target the person who bet the most and, if you miss on turn 1, force them into a 50/50 on the third round. Any of the small bets are a bonus because you can easily pay the 1 coin if you get the big reward and you avoid paying out the max bet (this will probably get more convoluted with more varied bets later in the game). So Menma didn't care about Champ because he could easily pay the 1 bios and instead hoped to get Tobita and Baku out, since they'd more than cover paying out even all three 1bets. As for the players, all the simple slaves will probably just choose the "safe" option on round 2 and hope to win the 50/50. However the game becomes much deeper when you realize that this would be a really basic and easily exploitable strategy, and that dynamics will completely change when the bets are closer in value and one player hasn't overwhelmingly bet more than the others.

Baku loses in the 2nd round because he intentionally does not choose the "safe" option of left like the 1 coin slaves did. Baku's plan was probably deeper and more psychological than this, setting things up for later rounds already.

But on a basic level, here's how I assume the game went:
1st Round: Banker points left. My assumption: Banker is targeting Tobita, who turns upward, and misses. Baku, like Champ, picks Right (or down, it doesnt matter)
2nd Round: Banker decides to cover Tobita's safe spot and points Upward. Tobita dodges it by using the safe direction of Left, as does Champ. Baku does not take the safe option of Left. He picks Up, and loses.
3rd Round: Tobita (assuming he did not lose Round 1) and Pachanga lose a 50/50, while Champ has the other safe spot available, so he wins.

Why would Baku turn upward here? I think because if you're a player that is not being "targeted" by the banker, it's probably a smart decision. The banker, if a simple gambler, will go after Tobita's 1st round choice, which was upward. Baku could have taken the easy Left here, but if he did that he would have possibly in a 50/50 in the final round if the banker targeted his first move (or he and Tobita had the same first move). If Baku avoids the second direction here, and picks say, Down, he gets a free pass to win because he holds onto his safe direction and can use it in the final round. But this would be a simple move to win one game, Baku is probably thinking bigger than this and is sowing the seeds for something. But this is still a gamble on his part; he doesn't know who the banker would be targeting, nor does he know what Tobita chose the first round since he's behind him. So he's guessing Tobita didn't pick up (if he had picked left and gotten eliminated, the banker would have likely chosen Baku's turn 1 direction).

The advantage of betting so much money and being at the top is that you can see the directions the others choose so you can see who has what moves available. You might be the initial "target", but say the banker sees a bunch of people pick the same direction on turn 1, and decides to collectively target them instead. Now you have the information on the way they moved, and if you think the banker will target their direction instead, you can try to sneak away with picking a different direction entirely, and then having your safe directions still to use in the final round.

I can see how this game could get pretty complex and deep when the bet values are closer and not clearly tiered like they were in this first game. Can't wait to see where the mindgames go.

 

[idle_af]

@BossCrab
Nice analysis, I only got to the part where the highest bettor can be targeted. I didn't think of the advantage of being able to see everyone else's bet in case a collective makes them worth more than the highest bettor (maybe Baku will be the first to utilize this strat as a banker, where the highest bettor fucks up because he thinks he's being targeted). As you've said, it will probably be more intense when the bets are closer. Probably some mind games will be involved regarding the amount to bet too. I wonder if there'll be a scenario where everyone bet the same amount, and what would the strategy in that scenario be

EDIT:
When a new chapter gets uploaded

 

[Lithe]

"This game is more complicated than I thought!" sums it up perfectly when he unveils more rules in the next chapter...

I shoulda known this was coming lol, though for a while I thought it really was only a game for 4 players and no others.

 

[Doomroar]

Guys i need resumes for those long comments, because i know they are important, but i have limited time!