Usogui - Vol. 40 Ch. 432 - The First Round

[RapidLord]

@Takoshi
You might be right!

Spoiler

I was going to add that the 10 cards might represent the 10 ranks (full house, pairs, etc) & that the cards that Baku & Lalo have are made from one deck of playing card, but I did the calculations & it didn't work out. Still I have some clues about some of the cards. If A=1, K=13, Q=12 & J=11, then:

For 63, these are the only combinations for it:
Full house: 13+13+13+12+12
4 of a kind: 13+13+13+13+11

For 8, these are the only combinations for it:
Full house: 1+1+2+2+2
4 of a kind: 1+1+1+1+4
3 of a kind: 1+1+1+3+2

For straight flush and/or straight (since they have the same numbers) these are the combinations with Baku or Lalo's number:
1+2+3+4+5=15
3+4+5+6+7=25
7+8+9+10+11=45

Summary:
- 63 is full house/4 of a kind
- 8 is full house/4 of a kind/3 of a kind
- 15/25/45 CAN be a straight flush/ straight but it can also be other ranks
- The rest (pairs,flush etc & combinations of 44,36 etc) have too many probabilities and the calculations for them take too long.

There's also a possibility that the 10 cards represent the 10 ranks, just with the 10 cards being made from more than one deck.

Also, notice that a royal flush will add up 47, which is one of Lalo's card. This might explain Lalo's confidence in the 1st round. Maybe Lalo wasn't bluffing, it's possible that he also have this theory & the number 47 on his card increase his confidence of that theory.

Looking at this, Baku is really unlucky:
1)Lalo knows a lot more about his cards, his 63 is either full house or 4 of a kind & 8 is either full house or 4 of a kind or 3 of a kind. While Baku knows nothing, there are way too many probabilities in his cards.
2)Lalo knows roughly what kind of card he have, for example, while he might not know whether 63 is full house or 4 of a kind, he knows that it is still a high rank card. While Baku don't know if his 45 could be a high card like a full house, or a low card like a pair. He will be taking a huge gamble on his cards.
3)The cards that Lalo knows are high rank cards. His 63 is a 4 of a kind or a full house, the 3rd&4th best cards, while his 8 have a higher possibility of being high rank cards as well. Not to mention the possible royal flush he might have.
Of course, this is all assuming Lalo actually figure this out.

Edit: @Veshv

Spoiler

Where does it mention that order of play matters? Isn't Baku & Lalo suppose to show their cards at the same time. Could you be talking about the 5 rounds? But then isn't order of play mattering a speculation, I can't remember the rules saying the order of the rounds is important.

 

[nhattminhh]

"Thinking is not free"
> This message was bought to you by EA gang.

 

[Veshv]

@RapidLord

Spoiler

Takumi says on page 3 that the upcoming games will be influenced by the order the cards are played. As I explained with the example, I took that to mean that the order you play the card in changes the hand that it represents. In other words, if Baku were to play his 45 and Lalo plays 47 next round, it could end up changing the value of Lalo's 44 when he plays it later.

On the topic of the 10 ranks for the cards, I like the idea, but it bothers me that for certain types of hands it's going to be damn near impossible to determine what the rank is. Though that does fit with Nowa Jr's talk about nightmares last chapter...

 

[RapidLord]

@Veshv
Oh yeah... My bad, I guess I was too busy looking at Baku's card to notice what Takumi was saying.

 

[JoebRogers]

@Veshv you might be right! I had the thought as it spoke of the possibilities for an air bios becoming invalid rather vaguely, just including breathing as one possible option without expressing the boundaries, I thought it could be a(n intentional?) loophole.

 

[Lithe]

@JoebRogers It actually bothers me a bit that I didn't even consider connecting the respirator to each bios for one breath and then using that. The "like breathing" isn't even important in that case.

It would still be risky to consider assuming "not full" means even the tiniest breath, or what continuing the game equates to. After all, if they have no bios to bet, what would the implied winner be doing after they're up? He could only lose if the game continued (i.e. play hands until he loses the pot that only he could contribute to) so they may as well jump straight to the un-cuffing as it seems a bit unfair.

And there is a minuscule possibility that the bios, once opened, are impossible to close so that would immediately null that trick. I still only basically understand how they work so, uh... someone with more knowledge would have to provide that detail if possible (it'll probably never be done in the story to reveal via word of God, but who knows).

I do agree, it's a bit of ambiguity in the rules, so my opinion is that it would be a referee judgment call which would probably result in a "lol no too bad". Would be hilarious if available to exploit.

 

[MYW]

My guess:

Spoiler

They're betting on PSI divided by ten. I believe it's their current PSI combined.