Usogui - Vol. 41 Ch. 442 - "Ace Card" Or "Bait"
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Observations of the match so far (tagged for length):
The entirety of Baku's thought process for this round can be summed up in 3 things.
1. Since his cards added up to around 170 to provide the hint of a deck of cards, Lalo's hand should be the same. This means the remaining cards are all high numbered and will make use of 10-J-Q-K, unlike the cards until now. This is a massive disadvantage for Baku overall, as it means that the only low numbered card that guarantees a win is a straight.
2. Lalo should have another straight flush just like Baku, and given the low cards Lalo played, his 2nd straight is higher than the remaining one Baku has. This means the card can be 30, 35, 40, or 47. In the cases of the ones that aren't 47 however, the straight flushes can't be made due to certain cards being used up. In the case of 47, the Royal Flush was available, and Baku could manage to get rid of it using 44.
3. Baku only needs to win one out of three hands remaining. But the calamity condition is still unknown. Therefore, the later the won hand is, the better. This means he should throw away the 3rd round to guarantee a win later. Ideally he'd want to win the last hand, but all things considered, that's not an option. Using 44 though, he can guarantee that his 25 is the strongest remaining card in the match, because it's the only straight flush that will work.
As far as Baku's perspective went, the only option was the play 45 here, get rid of the last possible straight flush.
Ironically enough for Lalo, his overthinking basically amounted to nothing. If he doesn't play 47, both of the other cards he has will weaken 47 to the point that it cannot be used as his "ace" anymore.
But as to why Baku even told Lalo about the law, I'm not quite sure. I had thought before that it was specifically to force out the best card from Lalo, but looking at what Baku figured out, and how the remaining cards shaped up, he didn't need to bother. There is probably something that I'm still missing.
The remainder of the game is, in my opinion, fixed.
This being said, the fact that the remainder of the game is so predictable means that I'm probably off the mark. Looking forward to how I'm proven wrong!
1. Since his cards added up to around 170 to provide the hint of a deck of cards, Lalo's hand should be the same. This means the remaining cards are all high numbered and will make use of 10-J-Q-K, unlike the cards until now. This is a massive disadvantage for Baku overall, as it means that the only low numbered card that guarantees a win is a straight.
2. Lalo should have another straight flush just like Baku, and given the low cards Lalo played, his 2nd straight is higher than the remaining one Baku has. This means the card can be 30, 35, 40, or 47. In the cases of the ones that aren't 47 however, the straight flushes can't be made due to certain cards being used up. In the case of 47, the Royal Flush was available, and Baku could manage to get rid of it using 44.
3. Baku only needs to win one out of three hands remaining. But the calamity condition is still unknown. Therefore, the later the won hand is, the better. This means he should throw away the 3rd round to guarantee a win later. Ideally he'd want to win the last hand, but all things considered, that's not an option. Using 44 though, he can guarantee that his 25 is the strongest remaining card in the match, because it's the only straight flush that will work.
As far as Baku's perspective went, the only option was the play 45 here, get rid of the last possible straight flush.
Ironically enough for Lalo, his overthinking basically amounted to nothing. If he doesn't play 47, both of the other cards he has will weaken 47 to the point that it cannot be used as his "ace" anymore.
But as to why Baku even told Lalo about the law, I'm not quite sure. I had thought before that it was specifically to force out the best card from Lalo, but looking at what Baku figured out, and how the remaining cards shaped up, he didn't need to bother. There is probably something that I'm still missing.
The remainder of the game is, in my opinion, fixed.
This round's best hands involve a shared Jack and Ace, so the calamity should trigger. Since it's based on the amount the loser bet, all Baku has to do is fold this hand. The calamity should force Baku to forfeit 3 Air Bios, leaving the remainders (ignoring any used for breathing from this point on) at 17-22 In favor of Baku. From here he wins round 4 for sure and, assuming Lalo immediately folds, will have 26 bios to Lalo's 13. Finally Baku folds the last hand, which, as long as there is no calamity (and there shouldn't be if we've been right until this point) will leave the final count at 18-21 in favor of Baku. On top of this, Baku no longer needs to think, while Lalo is forced to consider many things in trying to win all 3 rounds, so Baku won't breathe more air-bios than Lalo.
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AARGH, Lalo should have played 63 (= K K K K J) first, because if he played 47 for Royal Straight Flush, then the next round 63 will be useless.
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@MagnusvanDong420 But if he did that, wouldn't his 47 be useless next round? 47 is his strongest card, why would he gimp it by playing 63?
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*sigh
It has become absolutely clear to me only now that the poker itself will only last one round.
What truly bothers me is something so fundamental wasn't EXPLICITLY stated by the ruleset and had to technically be interpreted.
Or did I simply miss it, 'cause I thought something that basic would at least be stated clearly in the rule summary, but only upon thinking of the "game will continue" bit did I see how I'd figure that out (and backed up by the safe zone everyone keeps mentioning).
It has become absolutely clear to me only now that the poker itself will only last one round.
What truly bothers me is something so fundamental wasn't EXPLICITLY stated by the ruleset and had to technically be interpreted.
Or did I simply miss it, 'cause I thought something that basic would at least be stated clearly in the rule summary, but only upon thinking of the "game will continue" bit did I see how I'd figure that out (and backed up by the safe zone everyone keeps mentioning).
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@299792458 Whoops. I meant one "round" of 5 rounds.
In essence, you can only have a maximum of 5 rounds ever- is what I understand it to be now. But with the game merely being described as "continuing" after the 5 rounds I took that to mean that you would have to re-shuffle the deck (or something for a bit of randomness once the rules had been discovered) and re-deal once the initial 5 rounds are up. "Maximum of 5 rounds" to me meant "per game", not "after the 5 rounds are up you will have to make do with the bios you've won/lost".
I suppose everyone simply knew that "continuing" was a very specific instruction in this context but for me there were multiple interpretations. It certainly didn't help that the actual losing condition is technically only indirectly related to the poker result.
In essence, you can only have a maximum of 5 rounds ever- is what I understand it to be now. But with the game merely being described as "continuing" after the 5 rounds I took that to mean that you would have to re-shuffle the deck (or something for a bit of randomness once the rules had been discovered) and re-deal once the initial 5 rounds are up. "Maximum of 5 rounds" to me meant "per game", not "after the 5 rounds are up you will have to make do with the bios you've won/lost".
I suppose everyone simply knew that "continuing" was a very specific instruction in this context but for me there were multiple interpretations. It certainly didn't help that the actual losing condition is technically only indirectly related to the poker result.
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@catx3 Lol am I wrong to blame the author outright? Either way I'll sit with it and not think about it or I'll just ask you next time 'cause I noticed I tend to misinterpret a lot of things with Usogui and I'm sure a lot of it lies with my understanding of the language as opposed to external factors like proofreading.
Apologies are unnecessary I and appreciate your work regardless.
Apologies are unnecessary I and appreciate your work regardless.
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42 would have won.
Though let's see if Agent 47 will prevail against the Year of The Atomic Age.
Though let's see if Agent 47 will prevail against the Year of The Atomic Age.
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hype
