Usogui - Vol. 41 Ch. 443 - Respective Considerations
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Lalo's really suiting his role. Good chapter as always.
Well for me at least, page 14 pretty much confirms my theory at least. And I guess you were right @Veshv
This is definitely a 2 vs 2, and Hal and Fukurou are the ones deciding the strength of the hands. We can see that in the previous chapter's page 16 that both refs are repeating the number again into separate microphones after the result of 47 vs 45 was announced. So Veshv, your theory of them deciding the strength of the hand seems very likely. Now if I add something further, Shion mentioned that if they don't make any mistakes. So I'm thinking that all the information that Hal and Fukurou have are simply the numbers that have been played in the round and nothing else, which allows for mistakes to be made under extreme circumstances.
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Somehow, I'm more interested in the silhouette that one of the inmates mentioned they saw.
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I think the biggest risks in this game are:
1) we don't know which 2 cards have been left out of the deck (since they only use 50 cards instead of 52, it's possible that if only 3 copies of a card have been played, the 4th one was cut from the deck)
2) like this chapter suggests, up until now only the optimal hands have been considered for each number based on the remaining cards in the deck but the numbers that Usogui and Lalo can play were predetermined, which leads me to believe either the hands themselves were predetermined as well, or as has been suggested others are making hands from the remaining cards in the deck. I haven't tested this with a deck of cards myself, but I think the combination of 10 numbers that they together have would only allow for a very narrow number of hand variations. could be wrong though. my point being that not every hand would be 'optimal' for its number value since you don't just have to make the cards add up, but also stay within the limits of a 50 card deck
1) we don't know which 2 cards have been left out of the deck (since they only use 50 cards instead of 52, it's possible that if only 3 copies of a card have been played, the 4th one was cut from the deck)
2) like this chapter suggests, up until now only the optimal hands have been considered for each number based on the remaining cards in the deck but the numbers that Usogui and Lalo can play were predetermined, which leads me to believe either the hands themselves were predetermined as well, or as has been suggested others are making hands from the remaining cards in the deck. I haven't tested this with a deck of cards myself, but I think the combination of 10 numbers that they together have would only allow for a very narrow number of hand variations. could be wrong though. my point being that not every hand would be 'optimal' for its number value since you don't just have to make the cards add up, but also stay within the limits of a 50 card deck
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Yep. I'm sold on 2v2 theory with Fukurou and Hal being the ones that decide the number's strength. Biggest clue being "conjectured".
As for significance of betting 2 bios instead of 3, probably just Lalo being cautious? He has 16 bios prior to round 3 and used 2 for breathing (ch 440, 441, and 442). Ante for round 3-5 sums up to 12 bios. By betting 2 bios he has1 backup bios for breathing at round 4 and 5 enough bios for next rounds' ante, on top of the one he's currently using, in case Fukurou fucks up this round.
Might be too simple, but thats all I can think of.
Edit: missed 1 air bios usage by Lalo at ch 442
As for significance of betting 2 bios instead of 3, probably just Lalo being cautious? He has 16 bios prior to round 3 and used 2 for breathing (ch 440, 441, and 442). Ante for round 3-5 sums up to 12 bios. By betting 2 bios he has
Might be too simple, but thats all I can think of.
Edit: missed 1 air bios usage by Lalo at ch 442
Can't Lalo's hand be 4 4 K K K if this conflict is resolved by Baku's hand getting prioritized (for some reason)? That would eliminate Baku's straight flush because there will be no more 4's left. Someone correct this retarded idea of mine please
Edit: Then if Baku folds thinking that Lalo's hand is strong as shit anyway, he'd end up losing all the remaining rounds since he'd have no ace hand left, so now he actually has to bet in case of some fuckery that is probably out of their hands now. I wonder what convoluted calculation Lalo came up with to arrive at betting 2 bios. I dunno I'm probably missing something very simple
Edit2: Yeah this theory is retarded if it needs to be the strongest hand possible, my bad
Edit3: Fuck, if it's the strongest hand possible then doesn't that take away participation from Hal vs Fukurou? They don't have to do shit then. So what if the referees tell them the number, if it's just the strongest one possible then what do they even do? They can't "make a mistake" either, as Shion said. At least with the choice to decide what hand to form, as long as they form one, they can actually "play".
Edit: Then if Baku folds thinking that Lalo's hand is strong as shit anyway, he'd end up losing all the remaining rounds since he'd have no ace hand left, so now he actually has to bet in case of some fuckery that is probably out of their hands now. I wonder what convoluted calculation Lalo came up with to arrive at betting 2 bios. I dunno I'm probably missing something very simple
Edit2: Yeah this theory is retarded if it needs to be the strongest hand possible, my bad
Edit3: Fuck, if it's the strongest hand possible then doesn't that take away participation from Hal vs Fukurou? They don't have to do shit then. So what if the referees tell them the number, if it's just the strongest one possible then what do they even do? They can't "make a mistake" either, as Shion said. At least with the choice to decide what hand to form, as long as they form one, they can actually "play".
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@idle_af
@Reqqles
1. I don't think any of the cards are left out of play intentionally. Yes only 50/52 cards are used, but the two unused can be expected to change depending on play order.
2. The fact that Shion, who knows what the law is with absolute certainty, talked about variable hands (during this chapter and the last) depending on when a number is played, would imply that the hands are not predetermined. If the cards have a range of predetermined possible hands depending on what else is played, that's the same as it just being variable the whole game through.
@TetrisGuy
Are you implying that Baku will take the bait and call just to confirm that folding isn't "the special way of losing"? Thinking about it, that's actually a good point. We're relatively sure it's not, but relative isn't absolute, and considering Baku has to fold a later round... He's trapped in his own web if we look at it that way.
Needs is no longer the right term, after this chapter. The fact that it can be "conjectured", and not expected means that it's not a case of always best available hand. If we're taking stock in the idea that Hal and Fukurou are the ones deciding, nothing says that they "can't" make a mistake. It's more a case that they "won't" make one. Not intentionally, at least.
@Reqqles
1. I don't think any of the cards are left out of play intentionally. Yes only 50/52 cards are used, but the two unused can be expected to change depending on play order.
2. The fact that Shion, who knows what the law is with absolute certainty, talked about variable hands (during this chapter and the last) depending on when a number is played, would imply that the hands are not predetermined. If the cards have a range of predetermined possible hands depending on what else is played, that's the same as it just being variable the whole game through.
@TetrisGuy
Are you implying that Baku will take the bait and call just to confirm that folding isn't "the special way of losing"? Thinking about it, that's actually a good point. We're relatively sure it's not, but relative isn't absolute, and considering Baku has to fold a later round... He's trapped in his own web if we look at it that way.
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@idle_af
The "strongest hand possible" theory by Kaji contradicts with what Shion said. He said "whether your card wins or loses can be conjectured by a certain law". If "strongest hand possible" is true, there's no need to conjecture anything as every information to decide whether a number wins or loses is available.
Now, if we combine the 2v2 theory with yourretarded theory, the match is still very much up in the air, and will heavily influenced by Fukurou vs Hal, which we know nothing of what they know about Baku vs Lalo. Probably Hal and Fukurou knows Baku and Lalo's numbers and they decide each number's strength every round, but (obviously) can't decide which number is played every round. This makes the game essentially a semi-blind poker for those 4. If thats whats happening right now, your theory is definitely not retarded.
Lalo might notice this, as he noticed there's inconsistency on time delay between bet locking and result announcement of round 1 and 2. This can be explained by 2v2 theory.
Now, if we combine the 2v2 theory with your
Lalo might notice this, as he noticed there's inconsistency on time delay between bet locking and result announcement of round 1 and 2. This can be explained by 2v2 theory.
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I have to say, this is the first story arc in the whole manga where I've actually been able to follow along completely. I know a lot of strategy and logic problems. It's just the way the author is explaining things is much better than before.
Anyway, the most interesting result to the current problem would be that the amount you bet has a factor in which poker hand you are "dealt". By betting two, it might mean that the second strongest hand is used. We still do not know for sure optimal hands were used in previous rounds, so it might be an even/odd number of bios bet or a formula based on the final amount or a roll of a 2-sided die or whatever that determines it.
I strongly suspect a winning condition will be related to the amount of bios you bet vs use up and when, especially with the objective being "not losing" instead of "winning". For example, using only one air bios for an entire round could be a winning condition (although I doubt it at this point, it would feel really gimmicky).
I strongly suspect a winning condition will be related to the amount of bios you bet vs use up and when, especially with the objective being "not losing" instead of "winning". For example, using only one air bios for an entire round could be a winning condition (although I doubt it at this point, it would feel really gimmicky).
