Usogui - Vol. 41 Ch. 443 - Respective Considerations

[Haremmony]

Maybe it also has something to do with the fact that betting is done AFTER the cards are shown.

I mean, with the law revealed, and if that's really it about the law, the rule above basically serve nothing but making the most prominent aspect of poker: "the psychological battle of calling or folding", boring and predictable.

"Hey i got stronger hand than yours! I'am gonna go all in!"
"Yeah good for you, i fold."
😂

 

[Ominous]

I played poker before and I still don't understand how it works.
Every new page makes me wonder, "Is that good?! Is that bad?!"

 

[Takoshi]

"If no one plays wrongly"

That sold me on a 2v2 match.

Lalo is a genius for betting 5 bios and betting for the calamity to occur.

Currently:
Lalo - Bet 5, left 9
Baku - (will likely) bet 5, left 23.

Predictions:

Spoiler

Calamity strikes. As Usogui/Hachina has lost, he will also lose 5 bios as well based on calamity rules.

Final Results:
Lalo - 19 Bios (won 5)
Usogui - 18 Bios (lost 5, loses 5 more)

Now, Usogui has to win both matches to win.

 

[marcyvq]

but if both their hands are valid there's 5 jacks on the table, which isn't possible since we're working with one deck, so what is the deal here... this is one tense game

 

[caitsith]

@marcyvq Right, if Lalo makes a royal straight flush, there won't be enough Jacks for Baku to have a 4-of-a-kind.
Layers of spoilers/speculations follow:

Spoiler

Assuming that Lalo's hand, being stronger, takes priority, this leaves Baku with the full house of Jacks on pg 7 of Ch 442: J+J+J+6+6. This screws Baku because

Spoiler

even though he keeps his ace card (straight flush 3+4+5+6+7=25), it totally gimps his 26, which will become a full house of 2's: 2+2+2+10+10. If Baku gets hit with the "calamity" this round and is forced to discard enough air, he will be have to win it back in rounds 4 and 5; he might not be able to do that since

Spoiler

Lalo can easily maintain high-ranked full houses with his high cards (10+10+10+7+7=44, K+K+K+Q+Q=63). In that case, Baku won't be able to win both of the following rounds and, in fact, may even get his the full house of 2's downgraded to a two-pair of three-of-a-kind.

 

[catx3]

@AggravatingHighway

Spoiler

What you mentioned about Lalo being able to notice it with the time delays is interesting. Since Baku drowned in round 2, he probably doesn't know that there was an inconsistency that round, so he lacks a vital clue in figuring it out.

@hollyguild

Spoiler

I had pretty much the same theory! Especially because of how the cards are revealed before betting, and how Shion said something like "the result isn't decided even when the cards are revealed". Definitely leads it to be something variable, and my first instinct was something like having to do with the air-bios bet.

@Ominous

I had trouble too for awhile. I think the main thing to keep track of are the strengths of the strongest hands, all the weaker ones are basically irrelevant based on the card numbers.

Royal Flush > Straight Flush > Four-of-a-kind > Full House > All the crappy hands

@Takoshi

Spoiler

If that happens, that'd be really bad for Baku, considering his 26 and 25 both weaken each other when played. I believe playing 25 will turn his 26 into a full house, and Lalo's hands are likely to be stronger full houses at this point. And playing 26 first will turn his 25 into a hand that's worse than a full house.

 

[marcyvq]

@caitsith "Assuming that Lalo's hand, being stronger, takes priority"
right but that's a big assumption, for all we know the other match of the (possible) 2v2 is what determines which hand gets priority.
There's so many options about what's happening still despite the explanations we've had so far, it's quite exciting

 

[Veshv]

Someone pointed out during the chapter where Baku drowned that his dream during the tower match held some hints towards the truth. Looking at his dream this time around, that may have been the case once more. Specifically:

Spoiler

Yakou asks him during the dream "Why isn't Leader here?" Initially, the assumption is that Leader isn't there because this is a dream and Leader isn't present for the Air Poker. And then you end up at the actual question: why isn't Leader present for the Air Poker match? All of the referees on the island that aren't dead or out of commission are present, so why is Leader not?
Point is, I think Baku has some inkling of the fact that Hal is involved in some other capacity. As the match goes on, we may learn something about the smiling part as well.

@catx3 @Takoshi

Spoiler

Technically speaking, in that scenario Baku only has to win the last match to come out with more Bios. Of course, he literally can't do that because his 26 reduces 25 to a three of a kind.

 

[299792458]

@AggravatingHighway

Spoiler

Specifically, the reason there was a delay in the first round was because Shion hesitated in punishing Leader, shown when he said "please forgive me" and did not hesitate in the second round to punish Fukurou, leading to a faster time in announcing the results. Shion also said that Usogui made a mistake in the first round, but the only thing he could have done was call too much, which definitely sells me on the idea that the amount of Bios bet has an influence on the match, probably the severity of the punishment on the other players in the 2v2. Another thing is that Shion keeps saying "if no one makes any mistakes" instead of "if neither Usogui nor Lalo makes any mistakes", realistically there are not many mistakes you could make as Lalo or Usogui, since you're just betting on the strength of your hand now that you know the Law, so it must definitely be up to the other 2 players to choose the hand and therein lies the potential for any mistakes. From a story perspective, I bet Leader will fuck up and cause the calamity on Baku, but I think he should just fold.

Also, I'm not sold on the glass indicator being the only thing Baku broke in the first round, the shape of the object that floated up looked nothing like glass, and I can't seem to find any object resembling it in this match, but I'm probably just blind. If he did mess with the indicator, why did he not just make everyone think he ran out of air when he went all in, and then started breathing from the same air bios again? Just to save the trick for later? That's a big gamble. I also don't get the significance of this 2 Bios bet. If Lalo has predicted the calamity then these 2 bios will definitely fuck Baku up, but betting 3 bios would fuck him up even more, no? Additionally, what's to stop Baku from simply folding? The only thing I can see happening in that scenario is that the cards for their two hands won't get used, but would that really be beneficial for Lalo and/or how does he know this? I bet I'll feel like an idiot on the next chapter when they reveal the significance of the 2 Bios bet, but for now it escapes me.

 

[xkcdhawk]

@299792458
Here you can see the dial's glass edges are cracked, so something broke.
And here we can see a rounded cracked glass that seems to be able to fit the dial

 

[299792458]

@xkcdhawk That's why I said "the only thing". I think he did break that but that circular thing looks a bit weird to me. It probably is just that but it just looks weird to me.

 

[AggravatingHighway]

This sub-arc is definitely the most interesting match so far, and by far.

@299792458

Spoiler

According to Lalo, the time delay took tens of seconds in 1st round (ch 436), and came out instantly in 2nd round. I don't think Shion being apologetic to leader takes that much time. On the other hand, that may be caused by Hal/Fuku still planning/figuring things out in 1st round and Hal instantly chose strongest possible hand in 2nd round, since Baku would have lost if he lost that 2nd round.
Doesn't explain why Fukurou didn't delay things, like Lalo did, in 2nd round though. Maybe both Hal and Fuku doesn't know Baku/Lalo's situation, and Hal thought losing 2 times in a row would be bad. Idk.
Amount of bios bet influencing severity of punishment of Hal/Fuku is indeed very interesting. The calamity should be related to that as well, we'll see I guess.

 

[Doomroar]

I like the theory of betting affecting the hand that will be formed, it makes that part of the game more interesting, and could resolve the dilemma of both hands having to share cards, in that version depending on how much is bet a player may end with the 2nd or 3rd strongest possible hand that could be made for their number.

The 2v2 theory is too troublesome because neither Baku nor Lalo are able to know what is going on with Hal and Fukurou.

 

[JacobWhorne]

Since the strongest hands use up too many numbers here I feel like something's gonna have to sizzle.