Yomei Ichinen no Koushaku Shisoku wa, Tabi wo Shitai - Vol. 1 Ch. 3

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So why couldn't he just tell his populace that he needed to buy emergency provisions? Even if this is before things such as newspapers or whatever, the ruling class always knew that public perception was important, else risking riots or uprisings, and the the ruler wouldn't stay mum when his reputation is tanking because of said silence.
So this all feels like forced contrived drama. :pepehmm:
 
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So why couldn't he just tell his populace that he needed to buy emergency provisions? Even if this is before things such as newspapers or whatever, the ruling class always knew that public perception was important, else risking riots or uprisings, and the the ruler wouldn't stay mum when his reputation is tanking because of said silence.
So this all feels like forced contrived drama. :pepehmm:
It is. At best we'll get the classic Japanese "didn't want to start a panic".
 
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So why couldn't he just tell his populace that he needed to buy emergency provisions? Even if this is before things such as newspapers or whatever, the ruling class always knew that public perception was important, else risking riots or uprisings, and the the ruler wouldn't stay mum when his reputation is tanking because of said silence.
So this all feels like forced contrived drama. :pepehmm:
It is. At best we'll get the classic Japanese "didn't want to start a panic".
"Not starting a panic" is completely valid. Informing the people wouldn't just mean the people would automatically trust that they have it handled. It would just mean farmers would hoard and potentially try to steal other stock and merchants to increase prices because they know you're desperate.
 
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I call BS, this story of his does not match up with the evidence found.
  1. If this was the reason, there would be no reason why he needed an information blackout not letting his subjects know why he raised taxes ("because records show that there is a high risk for an [locust] outbreak destroying this years harvest before we can harvest it, I need to stockpile enough grain etc in case of the worst").
    1. Particularly not when the increase was significant enough his subjects were discontent to the degree that they were not merely treating their lords poorly, but outright assaulting his family when they were out walking on the street.
  2. If he expected that to happen, and the harvest was already that golden, he should have ordered them to start harvesting at least some amounts early. Yes, it ensures a poorer harvest than usual (and likely worse quality too), but still the sensible choice. Admittedly we do not actually know any measures he has taken or not taken (besides buying grain), so it is quite possible he already did do that.
  3. He would absolutely have been able to tell his kid about it. As a form of tutoring if nothing else, but also because it just makes sense. But sure, this could be a result of his poor relation to his kid.
  4. Taxing his populace of farmers in order to buy food for his populace of farmers, is contraproductive. The tax is going to be in the form of sacks of grain for the most part, and any he aquires and sells, is nevertheless not going to be able to purchase as much as he sold.
    1. It could still make sense to tax it to ensure he can distribute it effectively (and that people do not hoard for luxury or "to be safe", ensuring others go without), but it was made clear here that the purpose for the taxation was to buy more. And even if that wasn't the case, it would still absolutely make sense to warn his populace that they might want to avoid selling any excess they have left, or simply ration what they have, as hard times will likely follow.
    2. And I suppose it is possible their society is such that taxation is in currency even for farmers. Or that he lords over more than just a breadbasket, such as a well-develoed city (this did not seem like that, but thatm ight just be a result of the mangaka or aythor not being able to present a city well enough), and it is the citizen's taxed currency that he uses to buy, while the farmer's grain is already in the silos. But overall thats not the impression I got.
Mainly it is that "would've told his subjects" reason though. All others could still be handwaved away.
 
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"Not starting a panic" is completely valid.
Sure, but isn't he starting a panic AND having people resent him because he raised taxes so much people can barely feed themselves? There's nothing you listed that would also happen under extreme taxation (merchants already know he wants large amounts of food, though they don't know the why).
At least he could let people know there's an end to it, and WHY he's taking sudden preparatory actions.
 
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Mainly it is that "would've told his subjects" reason though. All others could still be handwaved away.
I have similar qualms but funnily enough, i feel like lack of official communication is the one that can be handwaved away while the tax part is super questionable.
 
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I call BS, this story of his does not match up with the evidence found.
  1. If this was the reason, there would be no reason why he needed an information blackout not letting his subjects know why he raised taxes ("because records show that there is a high risk for an [locust] outbreak destroying this years harvest before we can harvest it, I need to stockpile enough grain etc in case of the worst").
    1. Particularly not when the increase was significant enough his subjects were discontent to the degree that they were not merely treating their lords poorly, but outright assaulting his family when they were out walking on the street.
  2. If he expected that to happen, and the harvest was already that golden, he should have ordered them to start harvesting at least some amounts early. Yes, it ensures a poorer harvest than usual (and likely worse quality too), but still the sensible choice. Admittedly we do not actually know any measures he has taken or not taken (besides buying grain), so it is quite possible he already did do that.
  3. He would absolutely have been able to tell his kid about it. As a form of tutoring if nothing else, but also because it just makes sense. But sure, this could be a result of his poor relation to his kid.
  4. Taxing his populace of farmers in order to buy food for his populace of farmers, is contraproductive. The tax is going to be in the form of sacks of grain for the most part, and any he aquires and sells, is nevertheless not going to be able to purchase as much as he sold.
    1. It could still make sense to tax it to ensure he can distribute it effectively (and that people do not hoard for luxury or "to be safe", ensuring others go without), but it was made clear here that the purpose for the taxation was to buy more. And even if that wasn't the case, it would still absolutely make sense to warn his populace that they might want to avoid selling any excess they have left, or simply ration what they have, as hard times will likely follow.
    2. And I suppose it is possible their society is such that taxation is in currency even for farmers. Or that he lords over more than just a breadbasket, such as a well-develoed city (this did not seem like that, but thatm ight just be a result of the mangaka or aythor not being able to present a city well enough), and it is the citizen's taxed currency that he uses to buy, while the farmer's grain is already in the silos. But overall thats not the impression I got.
Mainly it is that "would've told his subjects" reason though. All others could still be handwaved away.
1. People told you why that is bad in replies before that. People would absolutely hoard resources and, depending on how long the famine lasts, he would need to send in soldiers to collect those hoards at some point to ration out food regardless. It's been shown time and again during sieges and famines in real history.

2. Dunno why here, but it is possible that it looks ripe on the outside, but is not fit for consumption yet on the inside. Also, ordering an immediate harvest is as good as saying that there will be a famine, leading to the problems in 1.

3. His daughter is just a child and can contribute nothing to the situation. Rather than telling her, he should've kept her either in the house sent an extra guard with her.

4. Storing up grain is a better way to prepare for a famine than gathering tax in money, since the price of grain would skyrocket once the locusts became public knowledge - not just in his lands, but in others beyond his. That's why he is buying it up NOW, rather than holding onto the money - its value is going to drop once he starts needing to use it, so he uses it ahead of time.
4.1. Again, people aren't stupid, if told "hold onto your grain", there will be enough smart cookies to connect the dots and do the financial-smart thing by hoarding to sell at a premium later, causing exactly the issue he wants to avoid.

I wouldn't call it hyper-realistic or ultra-intelligent, but it isn't BS either.
 
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1. People told you why that is bad in replies before that. People would absolutely hoard resources and, depending on how long the famine lasts, he would need to send in soldiers to collect those hoards at some point to ration out food regardless. It's been shown time and again during sieges and famines in real history.
People will hoard resources either way. The fact that the lord is buying up huge amounts of food is telling enough in itself for the merchants. And I did address citizens hoarding in a later point.
2. Dunno why here, but it is possible that it looks ripe on the outside, but is not fit for consumption yet on the inside. Also, ordering an immediate harvest is as good as saying that there will be a famine, leading to the problems in 1.
Humans can eat surprisingly much unripe stuff (at least if they cook it). Just not as tasty or nutritious.
And it could easily be spun as a "so good harvest we can do this in case of a sudden blight or fire or war, because we need to lower the amount anyway to ensure prices do not tank". real life farmers already get together to do this anyway, just instead of being additionally "just-in-case", they outright burn the 'excess' (instead of sending it as aid elsewhere - because expensive to help ppl).
3. His daughter is just a child and can contribute nothing to the situation. Rather than telling her, he should've kept her either in the house sent an extra guard with her.
"As a form of tutoring, if nothing else". Plenty other good reasons too, but this one suffices by itself.
4. Storing up grain is a better way to prepare for a famine than gathering tax in money, since the price of grain would skyrocket once the locusts became public knowledge - not just in his lands, but in others beyond his. That's why he is buying it up NOW, rather than holding onto the money - its value is going to drop once he starts needing to use it, so he uses it ahead of time.
Tax is always mostly in grain. They are farmers.
4.1. Again, people aren't stupid, if told "hold onto your grain", there will be enough smart cookies to connect the dots and do the financial-smart thing by hoarding to sell at a premium later, causing exactly the issue he wants to avoid.
The people are already hoarding what little they have left after the taxes, so that doesn't matter. It would only ensure they actually do prepare properly. Besides, he is mostly buying from outside his territory (obviously. his ppl is too destitute to sell after those taxes). And if he truly thought some actors might buy the imported grain before him, he could easily just create laws or edicts regarding the import of grain (either forbidding, or making it cost-prohibitive and funnel those extra funds into the aid-granary he is preparing for all of them anyway). Merchants already know what's up (that he buys massive amounts of grain for some reason), so they will hardly end up taking higher prices.
I wouldn't call it hyper-realistic or ultra-intelligent, but it isn't BS either.
I disagree.
 
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Hmm, this seems pretty middle of the road so far, I'll wait and see where it goes
 
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So why couldn't he just tell his populace that he needed to buy emergency provisions? Even if this is before things such as newspapers or whatever, the ruling class always knew that public perception was important, else risking riots or uprisings, and the the ruler wouldn't stay mum when his reputation is tanking because of said silence.
So this all feels like forced contrived drama. :pepehmm:
Information control. If the merchants learned of his motives through the populace they themselves would have been buying up and holding onto all the food to sell it when it grew scarce at a significantly higher mark up.

Not to mention other nobility.

A single noble buying up all the food for no apparent reason is odd. All the nobles and merchants buying up all the food would raise the price across the market explosively.
 
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Frieren: I had long years ahead of my life so I want to take an enjoyable adventure and takes time slowly enjoying things I usually didn't pay attention to.

Yona: I only has 1 year remaining of my life so I want to take an enjoyable adventure and see all the sights I dreamed of before I die.
 
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The main point is that just buying provisions is not nearly enough measures. If you had enough time for the people to openly complain about you, then you should already be building various measures like lookout points and sealed granaries.

On the other hand, if he didn't actually know what form the famine would take and when....it feels like he focused more on the information blockade than actually finding out how the famine will happen.
 
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So why couldn't he just tell his populace that he needed to buy emergency provisions? Even if this is before things such as newspapers or whatever, the ruling class always knew that public perception was important, else risking riots or uprisings, and the the ruler wouldn't stay mum when his reputation is tanking because of said silence.
So this all feels like forced contrived drama. :pepehmm:
If the populace panics, the merchants have more power in the negotiations when they may already know he’s panic buying.
 

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