i think a good rule of thumb for non-exclamation spacing is:
super tall box (over 3:1): do what you can to make it look ok, very likely won't be much space.
tall but not super tall (2:1 to 3:1): 1 character between text and edge, roughly
roundish (1:2 to 2:1): 1.5 characters
flat but not super flat(1:2 to 1:3): 2-3 characters
super flat: do your best
also, to the panel edge should be 0.5 less, the above is for bubble edge, up to a point (probably .5 or .4 char)
The goldilocks feels a bit off because the "correct" example is sitting at a solid 2 characters when you could deffo scale it up to 1.5 or towards 1.2. the "incorrect" example is beyond a doubt incorrect tho lol.