From my personal experience playing UFO catchers in Japan, I would say the regular plushie machines are the worst about it. It took me A LOT of tries to get one, but I managed to get one of those giant plushies (it was a gift for the girl I used to babysit).
On the other hand, there are a lot of other kind of crane games for figures, where you have to pull a tag so the box would fall or similar stuff. If you get the trick and manage to pull it several times in a row, you can easily get a nice figure for arouns 500-1500 yen... They usually sell it for 1500+ second hand from shops close from there, so maybe it would be better to go straight for that if you don't want to try your luck with the machines.