@Nicromatic
Japan would have failed nonetheless. Given their non-expansion nature, only subduing territories and sending the riches back to the home country, even with new supply routes that could reach Russia through the eastern end in order to do a pincer attack, they'd have reached a problem related to their supply chain overstretching; ammunition, rations, fuel, and pretty much all their resources had to be transported by ground supply lines, and that not only requires a good knowledge of the terrain, but also weather, temperature changes and humidity, wild-life, etc. And the exact same problem that the Nazi encountered when trying to invade Russia would have happened to the Japanese if they had managed to try: Their machinery stopped working, the rations were not adapted to the weather they went to, their clothes and training, knowledge of the lay of the land... it was an absolute defeat.
Still, if this timeline keeps going, Japan might become a major power despite its small amount of resources, and the Japanese being good merchants back then because of the restrictions, they'd be able to compete in the world market much sooner, and the government will understand that a capitalist economy is more efficient to develop a stronger country, since it allows the spread of resources throughout the land in a homogeneous manner, vs a controlled environment that needs to decide where goes what and is obviously hindered by the individual greed of the few in power. In the end, they will join the allied powers instead of the axis. WWII might not even happen in this timeline given that the Axis powers will be surrounded on 3 fronts by the allied powers, and the URSS right on top of them. It's also likely the cold war will not happen either, since the won't get a chance to help much, so it will also probably collapse sooner than in our timeline. China might have also been spared from all the dumb massacres the Japanese did in our timelines, as well as the Koreans and who knows what else... what's clear is the world wouldn't be like it is today, it would have been probably better, hopefully anyway.
Thank boredom-kun for the above, not me.