Suuji de Sukuu! Jyakushou Kokka - Vol. 1 Ch. 4.1
- Thread starter MangaDex
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Dex-chan lover
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Ah, good old expected value. Remember kids, the reason why gambling in slots or doing the lottery is stupid is because the expected value of winning the lottery or slots is significantly less than the money you put into it. The probabilities are essentially set up that way. Some people get lucky, but most of them don't, and the amount that don't is more than enough to pay for the few that do. It's why casinos can make a profit or why state lotteries earn more money than what they lose when someone wins.
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lol my school just open online course about the probability and statistic bcz corona virus...
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@Arcverson He has to explain it to the princess too. So he'd start with an explanation of the current scenario. Next chapter would be about how to win I guess.
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my head be like
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It's not that complicated.
All he explains is :
- First, why the other country wants to invade : force unfavourable economic terms.
- Then he puts numerical value to the fighting force of both kingdom and explains what they lack.
- Then he goes into the reason why defending is more favourable compared to doing nothing (Prisoner's dilemma) : If one country attack and the other surrender immediately, they'll be forced into highly unfavourable terms. While a good defense will at least make sure everyone lose a bit, but nobody gets a complete loss. Especially if it gets into a stalemate and an armistice.
And I'll add that forcing unfavourable economic term into the country you defeated is the guarantee to suffer another war later on. Simple example : Versailles Treaty at the end of WW1.
- And finally he talk about the expected gain, the economic side of the war. Currently the other country have too much to gain in this war and little to lose. They need to change those factors.
His plan is to make the country more trouble to conquer than their economic value is worth. Basically he wants to achieve a stalemate. And in the next chapter they'll most probably look into ways to reduce their attractiveness as a target.
All he explains is :
- First, why the other country wants to invade : force unfavourable economic terms.
- Then he puts numerical value to the fighting force of both kingdom and explains what they lack.
- Then he goes into the reason why defending is more favourable compared to doing nothing (Prisoner's dilemma) : If one country attack and the other surrender immediately, they'll be forced into highly unfavourable terms. While a good defense will at least make sure everyone lose a bit, but nobody gets a complete loss. Especially if it gets into a stalemate and an armistice.
And I'll add that forcing unfavourable economic term into the country you defeated is the guarantee to suffer another war later on. Simple example : Versailles Treaty at the end of WW1.
- And finally he talk about the expected gain, the economic side of the war. Currently the other country have too much to gain in this war and little to lose. They need to change those factors.
His plan is to make the country more trouble to conquer than their economic value is worth. Basically he wants to achieve a stalemate. And in the next chapter they'll most probably look into ways to reduce their attractiveness as a target.
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So much MAAATH
