Suuji de Sukuu! Jyakushou Kokka - Vol. 1 Ch. 4

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Jan 19, 2018
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The math on page 12 actually is correct, in that it calculated if it's worth to buy all five tickets.
What you calculated was if it's worth it to buy the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th ticket after previous misses.

It is not worth it to buy all five tickets, but if you already bought a couple misses it will be worth it to buy the final ones (despite still making a loss overall).
 
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@Kagemin Actually, the math should be correct if we are going by the logic that tickets are replaced after each draw. If we go by 'tickets are not replaced' -- then it would follow the logic of the translator, but only if there were ONLY 5 tickets.

1 winning ticket per every 5 -- what kind of raffle only has 5 tickets and doesn't replace them after being drawn? I'd have to wonder... It would also be a very different situation from the hypothetical 5 ticket situation if there were 25 tickets instead, and if it were infinite then it would be practically the same rate as if tickets were replaced after each draw
 
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The math on page 12 is correct. In a raffle the winner isn't revealed until tickets stop being sold. Your model seems to assume that you can stop buying once you buy a winning ticket, but that's impossible.

There's also a different mistake in your model. The P_n that you calculate are not the probability for winning after exactly n steps. They are the probability of winning with n steps or less. This means that you're double counting a lot of the outcomes. The fact that the probabilities don't sum to 1 should already be a red flag.
 
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> MC: "Its one of the thought experiments in game theory"
Princess is shown in the panel in her biggest thinking tots.... i mean thoughts....

> You know, its fun to learn how the different game theories applied in the war.
But............
My brain constantly locked on and focus on princess bewbs.... Which is so big and look so soft...
I dont which i learned anymore...

> Princess: "For the sake of Favell, i must learn more"
Even me, or us wants to learn more about theories and equation.
But the constant bombardment of princess bewbs in the panels are making my brain writes off all of those theories and replaces the image of princess bewbs on my brain....
 
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This isn't a western raffle, it's a Japanese kuji pulling. You can buy these things one at a time and know if you've won immediately. They're saying the expected value of pulling one ticket is .8 given that 1/5 tickets in the thing are winners. If you pull a ticket and know the result, then depending on the numbers of tickets, you can recalculate the odds, but when you pull the first one, it's 1/5. They're probably using that example instead of rolling a die or flipping a coin because drawing kuji is more familiar to a Japanese audience.

But yes, assuming there are more than 5 tickets in the thing, you're not guaranteed to win once every 5 pulls. (Unless you pull all the tickets out.)
 

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