It would have been a bit better if Noel was just wrong. But that is me hating his omniscient mind, that makes the story abit stale and predictable to his favor and predictions.
It's pretty obvious Noel is based off of characters like Lelouche and Sherlock Holmes that are geniuses not because the author is clever enough to make a difficult problem and solve it reasonably but by simply having them predict the outcome and chalk it up to their intelligence.
That's not necessarily a bad thing if you have other elements to their characters or to the story that makes it interesting, like how Lelouche had conflicting motivations that made him both heroic and villainous in both his actions and his methods that finally cultivated in his final plan, but Noel's whole character is centered around his one track mind to become the best seeker by leading the strongest organization. He has similar contradictory elements of being kind at times and cruel at others, but there's not much to look forward to when it's not treated as a flaw that he needs to overcome but an asset that makes him suited to lead.
Put frankly, Noel is a boring character because it feels like all of his growth was done offscreen before chapter 1, and we only get to see glimpses of it in flashbacks. I'm not too bothered by it tho because I'm not here for Noel, I'm here for all the other characters he recruits, all of their character arcs have been far more interesting.