Earlier you said that
So earlier you claimed that having a total fertility rate of 1.5, as is typical in Europe and the Americas, wouldn't lead to population collapse but rather a stable population.
After I proved that this is wrong and that a total fertility rate of 1.5 would lead to a population reduction of 45% every 2 generations, now you're implicitly conceding the that I'm right and you were wrong so instead you're trying to change the argument:
You're the one who forgot my argument, as I have stated in an earlier comment "Those can be argued as having a stable population as of the 2020s since it's only been recently that the majority of them lowered their fertility rate below 2.0."
You're implicitly stating that you're not reading well so instead you're trying to cherrypick.
Yeah, obviously if the fertility rate has only plummeted below replacement levels recently then the population won't have had enough time to age and shrink yet.
But that means you're admitting that these sub-replacement level fertility rates will lead to population collapse and are not on trend to population stability like you claimed earlier. So you're admitting that your earlier claim
is wrong and you're also admitting that I'm right and that people will need to have more kids to replace themselves and avoid demographic collapse.
So you're admitting you have not been reading what I said nor checking out sources, because I have stated that despite low fertility rates, never did I state it leads to population collapse and are far more stable, indicated by their bell curve. So you're admitting you're just reading that one sentence without contextualizing because you don't have a counterargument to a stable population.
No, I don't because my claim is not that Japan will go extinct. My claim is that if Japanese people people do not increase their fertility rate and have more babies then they will go extinct, which you've already conceded is true.
Red herring on what I "conceded", since I didn't say they'd go extinct either. My claim is that Japanese have unaddressed problems which leads to their low fertility rate, which you've been avoiding to be true.
This is all irrelevant blather that does nothing to refute the obvious fact that despite the wholly unsupported alleged claims of some supposed Japanese economists, Japan and the Japanese people will be much worse off if their population collapses and becomes much older so the working population shrinks and each worker has to support many more old people than currently. Nothing you've written refutes the paragraph of my previous post you quoted .
Your statement is all irrelevant blather, considering I've stated not only world statistics but trends on the population as well. Even adding the fact that your argument does not address the current state of their society which is not seen in more successful countries populations. Nothing you've written refutes the paragraphs of my post, especially since you've actively avoided them.
First of all this is wrong, scandinavian peoples don't have stable populations, they have fertility rates below 2 (and their country wide fertility rates actually over-estimate this because fertility rates for certain immigrant groups in scandinavia are higher than for indigenous scandinavians , so the overall country fertility rate is higher than the indigenous populations of those countries which are declining faster), which means they need to increase their fertility rate back above 2 or their population will collapse. This is the opposite of a stable population. A stable population is one that you can leave with it's current fertility rate and it will remain the same size.
But even if your claim that scandinavians have stable populations were correct, that would would do nothing to refute the point I was making which showed Lee Kuan Yew explaining why the claim that population collapse would be good for Japan and Japanese people is completely wrong.
Interestingly since you noted immigrants, since most of the immigration and emigration are groups that are also from European areas with low fertility rates, so you're just stating that by immigration, there's an abnormal increase in fertility rate which actually stabilizes their population. And that's the wrong definition of fertility rate, "A stable population is defined as a population that maintains a constant age structure and experiences unchanging fertility and mortality rates over an extended period." and that has actually been shown, in comparison to Asian countries sudden population boom and rapid fertility regression. You have seen what that did with China's 2 child policy, you have seen that in Singapore's stop-at-2. Those policies were not implemented in Scandanavia.
Especially since the data points that stable populations are indeed correct, it does a lot to refute the point you were making because Lee Kuan Yew only addresses the problems of population collapse while not seeing that Singapore already has a heavy middle aged population that he does not give incentives to start a family with.
You're pretty much taking the Japan-Population-Collapse comment very wrong here, since that is a means to and end to help with the fertility issue, which Scandanavia and some parts of Europe actually put into effect.
Lee Kuan Yew is the founder of singapore who dedicated his whole adult life to causing Singapore to prosper and making life better for Singaporeans , so no, any reasonable person has far more reason to trust him to speak and act in the interests of singaporeans than one has to trust unnamed, alleged economists to speak and act in the interests of Japanese people. There is no plausible motive for Lee Kuan Yew to lie and say that singapore is in trouble because of its low birth rates if that is not true, especially given that he made these statements after he had retired so was not seeking re-election or to take back political power.
On the other hand one could easily imagine why a supposed Japanese economist would lie and say that Jan's population collapsing is actually good for the Japanese people, they could easily be be paid or offer a career reward by Japanese politicians to pretend the situation is not bad so as not to scare away foreign investment.
Lee Kuan Yew would have the same pressure to pretend the future prospect of the birth rate situation is not bad as well so as not to scare foreign investment into singapore, so the fact that LKY is speaking out despite the bias to pretend that things are better than they actually are to attract foreign investment makes it more significant and shows that he considers the long term problem is so bad that it is worth publicly speaking out against and preparing for .
Sure, and they may well be right, but that doesn't change the fact that he is correct when he explains why it is bad for countries when their populations don't have enough kids to replace themselves so their population gets older and has fewer workers and each worker has to support more old people , so whether or not LKY did not make the right decisions to help Singaporean people have more children doesn't hcange the fact that these alleged unnamed japanese economists are flat out wrong if they say that Japan's population collapsing will be a good thing for Japan and the Japanese people.
Similarly the rest of your post also doesn't refute this point.
In the interest of having a prosperous and industrious country, I will believe what he says to be correct. Singapore is prosperous and the lives of singaporeans are indeed better, but it is top 5 in costs of living as of 2025, with Hong Kong in top 6. The incentives for raising a family will have to address this problem, not just with maternity leave but with the required education and wellbeing of the child as well.
The video you gave highlights Stop-at-two "has nothing to do with population decline", feels very conflicting since he actually gave policies in the 1960s that give lower education priorities for 3rd and 4th children as well as fewer economic rebates. Not to mention urging couples to undergo sterilization after their second child. Drastically trying to cut the population instead of letting it steadily decrease gave him the problem he is addressing now. He has no reason to lie but he ignores the fact that part of this was his own drastic action.
On the other hand one would have to question how European journal archives, as well as international statistical data, would lie considering that numbers and censuses are universal and are not being controlled by the Japanese government. If you're hung up on those Japanese economists, then why don't you also address their happiness indexes as well as the japanese demographical handbook?
So you're conceding that they may be right, and that despite him addressing this problem he has not taken steps to actually help this aspect? In comparison to his policies of economic benefit by establishing trade connections AND actually limiting population growth, he didn't actively establish plans to promote easier family growth.
Similarly the rest of your arguments ignore this point.