Ard is screwed. His big mistake is that he should have gone after Carlo first and foremost. His death would have been the easiest one of all to write off, what with being practically exiled to the harshest wilderness of their nation.
He still would have had to act quickly, but once he had word that Carlo was dead, that would be the exact moment to have Paks assassinated. Any sooner risks having his plan fall through if Carlo survived, and any later risks Paks being alerted to Carlo's death.
But instead, he tried to take both out at the same time, not realizing that no plan of action survives first contact with the enemy. In this case, Carlo's people were competent and were able to alert him to the surprise attack with enough time for him to get to safety.
It will not surprise me if the people formerly in Paks's faction are waiting for the perfect moment to turn their swords against Ard.
