By the way, I got so engrossed in all of this that forgot what it was all about. TL;DR: it doesn't actually matter whether you can or cannot get sued in this context. You are mostly right. Yet the law can be twisted into escaping.
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criver
I won't be looking for the explanation now, and you are right in some cases. Essentially, to be able to make use of the Fair Use catch you must own a personally licensed version of the material. And you can't prove such ownership over Youtube so they sometimes send the letter and Youtube does their thing. But in fact if things come to court you can get away with it. As I said, we in the assotiation had trouble with it once and a distributor threatened to sue us if we went ahead and made a screening in a juvenile center (considered to be a public space). Since we were in possesion of a personally licensed copy of the video, in the end they could do nothing since the law clearly states that as long as a) authorship is recognized; b) no profit is made; c) the material is not distributed (we could not copy the video and give a copy to everyone attending) you are safe. The last part was because the distributor was a license holder in our country. So in case of online manga, if the material has no license holder in the country, 100% safe. If they do, you are screwed if you try anything. If there is no holder in your country but there is one somewhere else, that holder may request an ip block by the ISP's. It would then go through court and you would have to pay for the trial if you lose, but still have no criminal charges or fine. Your site would end up blocked wherever the block was requested. This has pretty much never happened because, as you said, the companies cannot be bothered.
I remember some years back a mangaka had personally tried to stop a fan translation from happening and nothing could be done. Don't remember who, it's been years.
Also, I will reiterate: the right of distribution and profid lays with the license holder. As soon as there is one you have to take down all material or you are in deep if they were to sue you. Fair Use or whatever won't save you.
The difference between copyright and licensing is quite subtle but important. A Copyright is proof of ownership of a concept. If you have copyright over Isekai Maou it means only you can make a chapter of Isekai Maou; no one but you can use the name "Isekai Maou" for anything you have not made; you also own the characters, world, names, etc, everything related. Most Copyrights work also as local licensing, but you would have to pay to get one of those. The CC Copyright is "free" but does not work as licensing: you are forbidden from selling the work (you and everyone), but you still have ownership of the concept and can sue anyone using it without your consent. A License is a contract that allows you to distribute copyrighted material for profit. It has a tax, like any commercial contract. While a copyright is more or less universal, no matter where you got your copyright, once it's registered you have ownership and could sue anyone anywhere (not exactly, but it's sophism explaining the exceptions); a license is registered with a taxing organism and only applies wherever that organism can collect taxes. When making a translation you claim no ownership of the concept, you are supposed to do a fidel reproduction of the original but translated. It's the same work. So it's not infringing copyright. If you post it online and are in a licensed area, you are conflicting the legal distributor.
About, for example, game piracy (and why it's different). Originally the games had no piracy protection, so why did they add it, if they could just sue those who shared the game? Because they would be protected by this "fair use" loophole. So the companies added piracy protection, a mechanism in the code of the game that somehow prevents you from copying it (usually, a unique serial key). Now there are cracks, right? Well a crack is a modified executable, so it's a unauthorized reproduction and modification of copyrighted content.