Ad Astra - Scipio and Hannibal - Vol. 8 Ch. 51 - A Contest of Probabilities

[Rosen_Ritter]

Spoiler

I wish that Archimedes was spared as do some historians but history's canon demands that he dies.

 

[DexerMang]

Yep no matter how I tried to wrap my head around it, I'm too stupid to understand.
@laiseran the first link you gave had 3 statistics, with 2 of them favoring the point of swapping, and while I don't understand why the last one has such a minor difference and why just knowing simulation would affect it, I do get that the second stat chart supports my point, which is if you don't know which is the right one, then it's still 50/50. I don't get the point of a goat, but I do know that the cup being taken away is shown to not have the grape, which gives confirmed knowledge and eliminates probability on the supposed higher chance, even though from what I can tell knowing and not knowing is the same because if the grape was taken away then it wouldn't matter if the choice was stay/swap.

 

[Kautz]

Hahaha the Monty Hall problem always reminds me of Brooklyn 99 and Captain Holt's 'BOOOONE?!'

 

[dest_ai]

Don't worry if you don't get the problem. Even Paul Erdos didn't believe it, till a computer program showed it holds true.
Anyways if it helps i just imagine it as getting multiple picks. instead of thinking it as Archimedes revealing one of the cups imagine it as you picking a cup and getting it wrong , then you get a second chance to pick again so effectively you get to pick 2 out of 3 cups. If out of a 100 you pick 98 wrong ones you would think the next one would be right.
the only drawback is that this method is not very mathematically rigorous but it does appeal to the intuition

 

[ngkn92]

Look, this article has the statistics:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/monty-hall-problem/

I have read this and I came to a conclusion
This gamble is very stupid, for all I know, the old guy is tricking the young guy to switch, because human psyche and stuff, and our very smart guy switch, saying base on math, he would have 66% chance to win.

Excuse me, on the 2nd chapter, he is cheating in a gamble, he plays with human mind, and now he just follow the fucking math.

The read about math was fun, but this chapter is utterly stupid

And what happened when he lost, he win a deal anyway.

This whole chapter feels forced

Edit: After reading another link https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/ I have now understood
Especially this

Do you stick with your original door (1/100), or the other door, which was filtered from 99? (Try this in the simulator game; use 10 doors instead of 100).

I guess it does make a sense to choose the other one, but damn, I still don't feel this is good choice as a gambler.

 

[Grimmycoffee]

I'm still gonna say that this Monty Hall problem, at least in this situation, is bullshit. The second example is also way too different, with one side having around 98 cups on the other side.

Then again I'm probably just being prejudiced, since I feel like this is one of those things author use just to make the character look smart.