@YurilsTooLewd
for the reasons vermouth only came to investigate is not because he is detective cause if he was they would be investigating the sleeping koguro it because when Kudo went on the school trip he got exposed but then it claimed it was not him when it was really him rum sent a message to bourbon saying seek info on kudo shinichi and rum ordered vermouth to disguise it may be on kudo or why he staying in japan
@Serinox
I did my research, it's supposed to work in hours or not at all.
Before that, I noticed that you didn't disprove the second part, which implies that you can't prove your theory either. Just because it's the one the author wants to push it doesn't make it true, just look at Kid of the last chapter.
Anyway, Distigmine Bromide works like two other drugs but for longer and with a higher chance of causing cholinergic crisis, which is the thing that looks similar to food poisoning. This higher chance makes the other two alternatives more common. That page also puts it in the category of 'biscarbamates' which is in the category of 'carbamates'. nih.gov says its iupac name contains 'carbamate'. In this paragraph it's said that those two alternatives works by inhibiting the acetylcholinesterase enzyme. In this paragraph it states that 'carbamates' becomes effective in hours, and it mentions one of those more commonly used alternatives as example.
What the Acetylcholinesterase enzyme does is to destroy the Acetylcholine. Drugs like the ones in consideration are used to treat an illness that destroys too much Acetylcholine, and they work by inhibiting the destroyer of Acetylcholine so that its concentration can rise to normal levels. If overused those drugs cause the opposite effect: the destroyer of Acetylcholine to decrease too much and the Acetylcholine increases, causing the cholinergic crisis.
So, it's not like if you ingest less drug it acts later. It's supposed to do something within hours, and if you take too much of it, it does too much of that something. Always within hours. If you take less drug, the acetylcholine doesn't increase enough and you don't become sick. So Yukiko becoming affected after more then half a day (17h) doesn't make much sense to me. But then again, you can't prove your theory either, so at worse they are equivalent.
@XHolmesX
It's a huge single phrase, so I may misunderstand what you are saying. Anyway, Vermouth in this chapter stated that she was investigating someone that is staying in Japan. I don't see how this apply to sleeping koguro who never left Japan, or Kudo who disappeared. It's possible that she went to investigate Yusaku because he is Kudo's father. If this is what you were saying, then yes, you are right. But from my point of view we are still speaking about Yusaku, and It doesn't change my overall thesis. Otherwise I don't know what you meant.
Yeah, well, your theory boils down to "It's not impossible for Vermouth to have not been fooled", which is true enough, but kind of a low bar, since there are no other really strong hints in favor of it.
Also, my "theory" is not a theory I am arguing, it is what is presented to us in the story.
This feels like when in Ch. 894, people are arguing that Vermouth realized Akai was alived, but continued to argue against Vermouth because she realized that it was all Conan's plan, because of her smile and shock and because Vermouth is smart and wouldn't be so easily fooled - but then later it was revealed she really had no idea about it all and still believed Akai was dead.
The second parts nails it. You keep on assuming that the narrator is reliable, when just last chapter there was a big Kid face behind the masked Vermouth. Unless you give me a reason why that is unrelated to this, I don't see the difference. Surely you can't just say that it's true because the manga never did any plot-twist.
If with "what is presented to us" you refer to what Vermouth says in the last panels, then I already explained why it's indecisive, and it could also be used to explain my theory. She would say the same in both cases, so if you just remove those pages, nothing actually changes.
not true if you use Bayesian statistics, but it's not relevant to this post as I'm not using it.
Yeah, well, your theory boils down to "It's not impossible for Vermouth to have not been fooled" [...]
This is before I did my research. I ended last post toward you with "at worse they are equivalent" not with "at worse you are right". Particularly now that I made some calculation I'm fairly sure that she knows, if there was no author. Meta-reasons (things because it's a story) always prevail, so I wouldn't bet on it.
[...] since there are no other really strong hints in favor of it.
You don't need strong hints in favor of my theory. You just need it to be more probable than yours. Obviously, if in your experience when the BO is involved everything is as it seems, then I'll agree that I was wrong. Otherwise they are just two theories, regardless of what the Author is trying to push.
or you could prove it using Bayesian statistics if 50-50 and 0-100 are not good enough approximations of the prior probabilities of the theories due to your knowledge of the story.
This feels like when in Ch. 894, people are arguing that Vermouth realized Akai was alived, but continued to argue against [...]
You are right, we should avoid empty discussions. From the way you put your first phrase you seem to know first order logic, so I assume you also know basic probability theory. I'll formalize my main argument using probabilities I think we can agree to be indicative:
- H = the drug acts in (H)ours: either if you get sick, or only a bit sick, it happens in hours.
- S = Yukiko got (S)ick in that time frame.
- BH = Vermouth Believes H
- BS = Vermouth Believes S
- P(H) = 19/20 (this is probability I give to my previews post, as I don't see how that research could have been wrong, so 95%)
- P(BH | H) = P(¬BH | ¬H) = 19/20 (we can safely assume she knows the type of drug she gave them/that was used to fake their sickness. Other drugs in the same family work in the same way, they just stop working before, which is not relevant)
- P(BH) = P(BH|H)*P(H) + P(BH|¬H)*P(¬H) = 19/20 * 19/20 + 1/20 * 1/20 = 0.905 ~= 9/10
- P(S|H) = 1/100 (H excludes S, so it should be 0, but you never know. Raising is on your favor.)
- P(BS|BH) = P(S|H) = 1/100 (I assume that if she knows the poison, she knows how it works)
- P(S|¬H) = 19/20 (I think it's unlikely that one got sick in <5h and the other >17h < 19:30h. You think it's likely because she ate less, so I'll give it 95% that it happened like that).
- P(BS|¬BH) = P(S|¬H) = 19/20 (I assume that she thought the way you think she thought.)
- P(BS) = P(BS|BH)*P(BH) + P(BS|¬BH)*P(¬BH) = 1/100 * 9/10 + 19/20 * 1/10 = 0.104 = 10.4%
- P(¬BS) = 1-P(BS) = 89.6%
Personally I would have considered as negligible P(BH != H) = P(S|H) = 0, and considered as inconclusive P(S|¬H) = P(BS|¬BH) = 0.5. This leads to P(¬BS) = 97.5%. For the test in consideration it doesn't matter, so I'll use values I think you are more likely to agree on.
If you agree on those base probabilities to be indicative, then the probability that Vermouth thought that Yukiko was pretending is ~90%, which I think is indicative/"strong enough hint" in favor of my theory.
To avoid needless discussion, those are the reasons why I may change my mind:
- You tell me that in those particular situations the interpretation pushed by the author is the correct one. I'll just trust you as I know you know the story better than me.
- You explain why some values should be different in a way that lead to your theory being more probable than mine.
- You prove that even if P(¬BH) is in my favor, your theory is more probable than mine. This by giving indicative values like I did, and calculate the result using Bayesian statistics, or equivalent. Otherwise a ~90% / ~97% is enough for me to believe she had some serious doubts about your theory.
- You explain how my research below is wrong.
- You find an error in my calculations/formulas.
- There is a mistake in those 6 conditions.
Otherwise I see no point in a discussion that continued for probably too long. (I still gave a refresh to probability theory, which is good enough for me)
One problem is that you assume the distigmine bromide in the series works like it does in real-life, and not to the authors convenience. However, we have the coutner-example of chloroform quite frequently in the manga (and basically all crime fiction). Chlorofom in real-life doesn't just knock out a person immediately like it does in the manga. So if that is the case, it might just be that distigmine bromide also works more to how the author wants it to work, rather than how it would actually work.
@Serinox
I didn't know. I searched from more info and apparently it is portrayed like that since at least 155 years, not long after it was known to be an anesthetic. For some reason I expected Conan to be more reliable in the way they used the various poisons and drugs, but If they are fine with that for convenience, I don't see why what I presented would have any relevance in the story. Actually, it would be strange to use those details when they ignore the chloroform. And without Vermouth's mention of his mum, you can't pull off this plot twist. So yeah, I think you are right: this won't happen.
@YurilsTooLewd
Sorry I was in a hurry, About sleeping Korgro what I meant is see how you stated beforehand that you said they are investigating Yusaku
it's because he is a detective and might get in their way reading back to your old comment I have misunderstood I thought if it's cause he is a detective then they should investigate Sleeping Kogoro cause they are both famous Detectives so like why would they investigate Yusaku. (Just forget about Sleeping Korgro 😁)
My theory is that Rum did not only send Vermouth to go figure out his intentions because he is staying in Japan, What I am saying is that this is not the only reason that Rum send Vermouth to go investigate. My theory (I wouldn't call it a theory tho), lets begin, Let's go all the way back when after the High School trip was over and a fan of The great Detective of the East posted that she saw Kudo on a school trip. Then it goes on and on but at the end of the story Bourbon gets a message from Rum it stated (Seeking info on Kudo Shinichi, Time is Money Bourbon) because everyone saw Kudo face on the news with Heji.
Which means everyone know Kudo's parents ( The famous actor, The famous writer) so what I am thinking all this doing is from Rum
he/she sent the message to Bourbon and she ordered Vermouth to go investigate so the point is at the same time they are getting the double of information, Which is Why is Yusaku staying and Japan and about his son.
I'm kinda late, But I didn't expect the Vermouth to appear on this case. So.... Looks like Rum's a bit interested with Yusaku. Now let's wait for their big move.
Tbh I thought it was Vermouth rather than Kaito Kid, bc u know, this family. But then I was exstatic that it was Kaito Kid! But then it turns out it was Vermouth so.. 🙃
