So now she has confirmation of her suspicions... I'm still not convinced though. If he did manipulate her, it was very mildly, given how free her actions were (like the jumping into the lake)
Sidenote though, if Nocton's mother never called him by his name... Is this foreshadowing of the mother actually pulling that same trick on Nocton? It's kinda curious to me how the manipulator cannot actually tell from the magic that the spell worked, only by behaviour. It seems very unreliable.