According to the rules, it seems pretty clear just from ch.1 that the childhood friend will win.
1. First guy on the scene wins. Few exceptions.
2. First guy to get actual character development totally wins. You get his whole touching backstory of why he loves her etc. before anyone else even shows up. That's the winning character right there.
Geeze, the comments had me worried, and here it's just that some people are forgetting the rules.