Usogui - Vol. 31 Ch. 337 - The Ill Will Hidden Under The Lid
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That's kinda crazy... Hitting a 25% probability in the first shot and then hitting 50% probability in the last round all in one match on the two highest bidding targets? It's possible but... Well, I guess he predicted that he wouldn't be the type of person to duel in the 2nd round, but still, he was quite lucky... Or maybe there's something else to it. Hm.
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@299792458
It was 50:50 during the first round thought since he knew they would face different directions..
I agree on it being unlikely though but it is him after all..
It was 50:50 during the first round thought since he knew they would face different directions..
I agree on it being unlikely though but it is him after all..
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@TheInvisableKid Ah, that is true. Well, hitting a 50/50 twice is more believable. I mean the other scenario would've been believable too, but it's not like BK to leave such a thing to chance. Even if it's good odds.
Anyone know what the cross out means? Could this be a strange inception story telling technique where he blacked outout after the guy lost the 1st round and imagined losing everything after?
This could be a reset in terms of the next chapter and he goes "oh I actually didnt lose it all"
This could be a reset in terms of the next chapter and he goes "oh I actually didnt lose it all"
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@Clooud I was thinking it was just a repetition of the previous panel, with the second panel having the same message scribbled in black instead. It was most likely done to emphasize Champ's realization for how hypocritical he's been. His first thought was to blame others, but then realized he was to blame, hence why the second panel was scribbled in black. He's blamed others for his predicament, looked down on them, and became intoxicated with his own self-righteousness.
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Oh, so that is why the game called "The encirclement of the 4 gods".
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@LuffyKun
No, it's empty in the raw.
@299792458 @TheInvisableKid
I tried looking at some of the past games to see if Travolta or Champ had some habits. But it didn't seem like anything substantial, because there were only 3 games with them as players showed on-screen.
Still, Travolta lost all 3 games in the first round with "left, down, left". It's definitely a stretch, but he could have a "left" habit which Usogui picked up on, with the addition of games that happened off-screen? Meaning only one 50% chance for BK. Though even the habit itself is not 100%.
Champ's games were a lot more varied and didn't seem to show any directional bias or even a bias towards dueling/certain pass.
No, it's empty in the raw.
@299792458 @TheInvisableKid
I tried looking at some of the past games to see if Travolta or Champ had some habits. But it didn't seem like anything substantial, because there were only 3 games with them as players showed on-screen.
Still, Travolta lost all 3 games in the first round with "left, down, left". It's definitely a stretch, but he could have a "left" habit which Usogui picked up on, with the addition of games that happened off-screen? Meaning only one 50% chance for BK. Though even the habit itself is not 100%.
Champ's games were a lot more varied and didn't seem to show any directional bias or even a bias towards dueling/certain pass.
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Too bad. Champ and Travolta are quite unlucky.
Assuming BK will always target one of them (which is a BIG assumption) the odds of their strategy (different directions THEN certain pass for everyone) were like this:
2 wins : 25% (both pass the first round, then the target wins against BK)
1 loss, 1 win : 50%
2 losses : 25% (only one player gets to the second round, and happens to lose against BK)
But as I already said in a previous chapter, the odds could have been slightly better.
If they both choose the same direction in the first round, and THEN one of them uses the certain pass while the other duels, it goes like this, no matter how BK plays:
- 2 wins : 37,5%
- 1 loss, 1 win : 37,5%
- 2 losses : 25% (the case where BK choose the same direction as both of them right away in the first round)
The losing rate stays the same, though.
Assuming BK will always target one of them (which is a BIG assumption) the odds of their strategy (different directions THEN certain pass for everyone) were like this:
2 wins : 25% (both pass the first round, then the target wins against BK)
1 loss, 1 win : 50%
2 losses : 25% (only one player gets to the second round, and happens to lose against BK)
But as I already said in a previous chapter, the odds could have been slightly better.
If they both choose the same direction in the first round, and THEN one of them uses the certain pass while the other duels, it goes like this, no matter how BK plays:
- 2 wins : 37,5%
- 1 loss, 1 win : 37,5%
- 2 losses : 25% (the case where BK choose the same direction as both of them right away in the first round)
The losing rate stays the same, though.
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@299792458 It's not that big of an assumption in case both Champ and Travolta pass the second round, because it's pretty sure they'll stick to their strategy to use the certain pass. There's simply no benefit not to do so. So BK will definitely target one of them.
But when only one player makes it to the second round, the plan has already failed. So the usual mind game returns again.
In this chapter, Champ still chose to use the certain pass, and Baku saw through it since he targetted him. But he could have chosen to duel , and in this case, not targetting him would have been the right choice.
In fact, not only did I make the assumption Baku would always target him, but I also considered the last player standing would definitely choose the certain pass. So... yeah, in fact, these specific probabilities have no real meaning since they heavily depend on decision making and mind games. With someone as OP as the lie eater involved, it may be more of a 100% win ratio than a 50% one. XD
Also, there's still something I don't understand. (if anyone has a theory, I'd like to hear)
Why the hell did BK chose to duel in the very first game? I don't believe he seriously thought the banker would target him, since Tobita was higher on the stairs. He definitely knew it was a bad move, but did it anyway, probably to start a mind game of some sort.
As long as I don't understand this, I will not take for granted Baku making the obvious choice. Even with 200 bios at stake.
But when only one player makes it to the second round, the plan has already failed. So the usual mind game returns again.
In this chapter, Champ still chose to use the certain pass, and Baku saw through it since he targetted him. But he could have chosen to duel , and in this case, not targetting him would have been the right choice.
In fact, not only did I make the assumption Baku would always target him, but I also considered the last player standing would definitely choose the certain pass. So... yeah, in fact, these specific probabilities have no real meaning since they heavily depend on decision making and mind games. With someone as OP as the lie eater involved, it may be more of a 100% win ratio than a 50% one. XD
Also, there's still something I don't understand. (if anyone has a theory, I'd like to hear)
Why the hell did BK chose to duel in the very first game? I don't believe he seriously thought the banker would target him, since Tobita was higher on the stairs. He definitely knew it was a bad move, but did it anyway, probably to start a mind game of some sort.
As long as I don't understand this, I will not take for granted Baku making the obvious choice. Even with 200 bios at stake.
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BK might've gotten to Travolta first though I'm not even gonna bother wondering what kind of deal would have been struck. At the very least, Travolta would have to trust his life to another person in that scenario.
I'm just happy we will presumably get 3 more chapters of this.
I'm just happy we will presumably get 3 more chapters of this.
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@Lithe Hey. That's an interesting theory you have there.
I reread the introduction of Travolta and... yeah, this guy is kinda fishy, in a way.
Firstly, Champ doesn't remember saving him in the MMORPG at all, so the whole story might be full of crap, for all we know. Secondly, why didn't he introduce himself to his "savior" before the lottery? Unless Travolta arrived to this island so recently he didn't met Champ before, I don't buy it. He's a far too convenient partner to get by chance, just after getting betrayed.
So yeah, it might not be unreasonable to think that this 2-player team had been staged, somehow. That would also explain why BK even bothered to taunt Champ that much. By doing so, he could have manipulated him into making this 200-bios bet with Travolta. After all, it's not like Usogui to be unprepared in a situation where he could lose 400 bios with a 25% chance.
But it could also be that the author just needed Champ to have a trustable partner, so he set up one. Although I'd be disappointed.^^
I reread the introduction of Travolta and... yeah, this guy is kinda fishy, in a way.
Firstly, Champ doesn't remember saving him in the MMORPG at all, so the whole story might be full of crap, for all we know. Secondly, why didn't he introduce himself to his "savior" before the lottery? Unless Travolta arrived to this island so recently he didn't met Champ before, I don't buy it. He's a far too convenient partner to get by chance, just after getting betrayed.
So yeah, it might not be unreasonable to think that this 2-player team had been staged, somehow. That would also explain why BK even bothered to taunt Champ that much. By doing so, he could have manipulated him into making this 200-bios bet with Travolta. After all, it's not like Usogui to be unprepared in a situation where he could lose 400 bios with a 25% chance.
But it could also be that the author just needed Champ to have a trustable partner, so he set up one. Although I'd be disappointed.^^
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@299792458 Haha, yeah, sorry. Should I use "copying" instead? Or do you have a better term?
I'm not used to converse in english, so don't expect me to always use the best words to express my ideas. ^^'
I'm not used to converse in english, so don't expect me to always use the best words to express my ideas. ^^'
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