Usogui - Vol. 42 Ch. 458 - Folding From Instinct
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Man, this match is blowing my mind.
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I think I figured Baku's great trick out. It's amazing.
I think Baku folded his Empty air bios over to Lalo. His strategy was to switch as much empty air bios over to Lalo, all the while swapping as much full ones. He's not betting on HAL doing his job, he's betting on Lalo not noticing that Baku's slowly been swapping the air bios around. Even more interestingly: He's been purposefully emptying his own full air bios, unbeknownst to Lalo. The Air bios folded to lalo must've been empty, making the true number of actual air bios unknown to anyone but Baku. Escaping air would be noticed, so there's only been a few possible moments where he could empty these out. The gas meter at 0 gave it away. Bit of the casino cheating methods of hiding valuable chips under low value chips, and various other bet manipulations. Eg. the savannah, ...
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Comes back to the "crack" sfx that was visible when the match first started. I think the fact the referee is bleeding must be because of the shard of one of the bios that Baku potentially broke in the beginning. Lalo now has a false sense of victory.
@fire I highly doubt that is the case. If you see chapter 432, it specifies that any bios that isn't full cannot be used for betting. So the minute Lalo points this out, it is Baku's loss. I still believe my theory of,
Baku having all those air bios having little bits of air in them so he can use them later himself. The glass being broken, him manipulating the dial has been foreshadowed a ton now.
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II'm kinda confused about Fukurou's real motives.
Sure, from his perspective, Souichi is just a kid who lost to him pathetically. In that regard, it makes sense for him to want to replace Souichi with Lalo as the current leader of his beloved Kakerou. But as I first understood it, he didn't even know that the new leader was Hal.
@fire Nice theory.
Sure, from his perspective, Souichi is just a kid who lost to him pathetically. In that regard, it makes sense for him to want to replace Souichi with Lalo as the current leader of his beloved Kakerou. But as I first understood it, he didn't even know that the new leader was Hal.
@fire Nice theory.
It would explain why Baku was in such a rush on page 15. He can't have Lalo see him using his supposedly empty bios before the bet for the 5th round are set. But if it's true, it's quite a dangerous bet. What if the next air bios Lalo tries to use is an empty one? He would understand everything directly. Also, it's not sure if the referees would really allow this kind of moves.
@fire @the9813
Tried summing it up
I don't agree with the trick of emptying his own full air bios so that Lalo's shit out of luck, it's probably more that now that Lalo doesn't know how much bios Baku has, he can't just go ahead and fold. Right now it's 22 vs 12, so if Lalo just folds the last round and loses, he'll lose the match in the end because of this trick (It'll be 17 vs 17 + ???). He'd have no choice except to accept Baku's raises at the final round. And I guess that's where the part up top will be relevant, that Baku still has to win the last round of 44 vs 25. So he forces Lalo to accept the raise, but still needs to win.
He'll probably just keep raising the bet to the max because if he loses the last round he's dead anyway since it'll be 27 v 7 and I doubt that Baku's trickery can overcome THAT big of a difference. And if he wins, why not win big. As I said, Lalo is forced to accept the bet because of Baku's obfuscation. He can't fold because of his 17 vs Baku's 17 + ???
He probably wouldn't fold anyway because of 44 (Full House) vs 25 (Shit card), more like he'll wonder what the fuck is wrong with Baku for raising with such a shit card. Nice
Well, maybe the trick of emptying the bios given to Lalo is still part of it, just to further obfuscate and mess with things. But yeah
Nevermind, @xkcdhawk pointed out that you can't bet any bios that isn't full so that part of the trick is irrelevant but the obfuscation part is still in.
Also scratch that, I think it's actually stupid that Baku needs to bait Lalo into it. Because if this reason for the trick is true, the obfuscation, then he just needs to make Lalo fold the last round so that it'll be 17 vs 17 + ??? with Lalo none the wiser. I guess Lalo has no reason to fold in the first place because it'll be 17 vs 17 and he wants to win, plus it's fucking 44 vs 25.
He'll probably just keep raising the bet to the max because if he loses the last round he's dead anyway since it'll be 27 v 7 and I doubt that Baku's trickery can overcome THAT big of a difference. And if he wins, why not win big. As I said, Lalo is forced to accept the bet because of Baku's obfuscation. He can't fold because of his 17 vs Baku's 17 + ???
He probably wouldn't fold anyway because of 44 (Full House) vs 25 (Shit card), more like he'll wonder what the fuck is wrong with Baku for raising with such a shit card. Nice
Nevermind, @xkcdhawk pointed out that you can't bet any bios that isn't full so that part of the trick is irrelevant but the obfuscation part is still in.
Tried summing it up
Lalo 22 vs Baku 12
Round 5, 44 vs 25 is shown
Lalo just needs to win without any raises. If he loses, it'll still be 17 vs 17 so there's no reason for him to raise just to fuck it up for himself
Baku needs to win to be able to get it down to 17 vs 17 + his extra bios. He doesn't have a reason NOT to raise the bet because if he loses, he loses outright. Doesn't matter how much the bet is.
So Baku will raise the bet. Lalo can just fold because it's unnecessary risk to him in case 25 actually wins but why would it win, he can't think of any reason. But then he gets forced into it anyway once Baku reveals his extra bios trickery so there's actually a risk for him now. Maybe he'll try figuring out how much extra bios Baku could've mustered, that it can't be that much due to the limitations of the setting, but still. If he loses, it'll be 17 vs 17 + ??? for Baku. So he can't fold, he's forced to accept the bet
EDIT: Thinking about Baku's shenanigans, I actually think that the trick doesn't allow him to hide that much extra bios so in the end it may still end up being up in the air with Baku having just the slightest advantage, the + extra may just end up being .5 or some shit which is why to ensure the victory, he'll raise the bet. Lalo on the other hand isn't privy to every detail about the trick which makes him hesitate. "If I lose here, would the extra bios Baku has actually fuck me over and kill me? Should I just accept the raise and try to win?" That, plus again, it's fucking 44 v 25 so why would he fold.
I bet this is how it'll pan out but I've been proven wrong by this manga repeatedly anyway so who knows. I'm still waiting for my theory about how 63 vs 26 played out to be proven wrong too.
Round 5, 44 vs 25 is shown
Lalo just needs to win without any raises. If he loses, it'll still be 17 vs 17 so there's no reason for him to raise just to fuck it up for himself
Baku needs to win to be able to get it down to 17 vs 17 + his extra bios. He doesn't have a reason NOT to raise the bet because if he loses, he loses outright. Doesn't matter how much the bet is.
So Baku will raise the bet. Lalo can just fold because it's unnecessary risk to him in case 25 actually wins but why would it win, he can't think of any reason. But then he gets forced into it anyway once Baku reveals his extra bios trickery so there's actually a risk for him now. Maybe he'll try figuring out how much extra bios Baku could've mustered, that it can't be that much due to the limitations of the setting, but still. If he loses, it'll be 17 vs 17 + ??? for Baku. So he can't fold, he's forced to accept the bet
EDIT: Thinking about Baku's shenanigans, I actually think that the trick doesn't allow him to hide that much extra bios so in the end it may still end up being up in the air with Baku having just the slightest advantage, the + extra may just end up being .5 or some shit which is why to ensure the victory, he'll raise the bet. Lalo on the other hand isn't privy to every detail about the trick which makes him hesitate. "If I lose here, would the extra bios Baku has actually fuck me over and kill me? Should I just accept the raise and try to win?" That, plus again, it's fucking 44 v 25 so why would he fold.
I bet this is how it'll pan out but I've been proven wrong by this manga repeatedly anyway so who knows. I'm still waiting for my theory about how 63 vs 26 played out to be proven wrong too.
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Fukurou's a top tier bluffer, everything he says can't be taken seriously. It might just be semantics in that he loves an organization so much if they'd fall to something like Ideal they may as well be destroyed since he can't bear to see his beloved kagerou so weak.
It's still really weird he basically threw aside his rep (losing a poker game intentionally) and his kagerou seat on purpose for this, he's gotta have some other kind of end game
It's still really weird he basically threw aside his rep (losing a poker game intentionally) and his kagerou seat on purpose for this, he's gotta have some other kind of end game
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Takumi's shock from last chapter, and the announcement taking so long, to me, implies that Leader in fact also made an invalid hand. The rules for the upper level stated if both players messed up, they'd remake their hands with another 100 seconds, and the fact that it's markedly taking longer to move on would mean that the upper level is taking longer than it should. Folding was definitely the right call I think.
@Lie_Eater
Sure, but it's most definitely wrong
From here https://mangadex.org/chapter/866030/comments :
Pretty fucking long but yeah. Some parts are also irrelevant since it's like 7 chapters behind
Oh, and I forgot to mention that it's all up in the air now because Baku folded. I don't know how that would affect the pool of remaining cards. Because if it doesn't affect it, then it doesn't matter what Hal played since Baku folded. The straight flush can still be formed. But if the cards are still consumed, then I stand by my theory.
If @Veshv is correct, that Hal made an invalid hand too, then it means that Hal didn't form either hand I was suggesting, disproving my theory. I don't like that development though because as of now, forming an invalid hand deliberately means Hal is aware of the straight flush. I don't see why he would go for the invalid hand instead of what I suggested since the goal is the same. Perhaps to avoid a calamity? Maybe if your hand is "invalid" you can't get hit with a calamity. If he formed a shit hand on purpose, to avoid ruining the straight flush, there's still a chance for a calamity. Yeah, maybe that's the reason. Maybe he formed a hand using all the cards that have been used up so far just to avoid a calamity. I dunno
Sure, but it's most definitely wrong
From here https://mangadex.org/chapter/866030/comments :
The context was what plan could Baku possibly come up with in the situation.
"If we assume no signals to be sent [to Hal], meaning Baku's only method of communication is by playing a card like you said, then here's the only thing I can imagine. When Hal gets told Baku's number by the referee, he'd wonder why Baku would play a number that is below the average of the possible remaining numbers just as Baku figured out earlier it should also be possible for Hal (so for this round, it's originally 40, then if 25/26 is played, the average of the remaining cards will be ~44). Why won't Baku choose that other number instead of 25/26, knowing the risk of running out of cards? Probably because he doesn't have a choice, that all his numbers are below that average, and from there he can easily deduce that Lalo's number are all above average.
Assuming 26 is played because I can't come up with any way for him to win if he goes for 25 first, the next thing he'd probably think about is if this is Baku's strongest hand or not, because if all of Baku's numbers are below that average, and thus all of Lalo's are above that, then 26 is a pretty shite card because the 6 Full House gets destroyed by a possible 10/Q/K or even 7 Full House [since Lalo's cards are all above average, these are the ones he can form]
If 26 is Baku's strongest hand, it probably means he's fucked no matter what. Which means that this round is lost anyway (because it's a shit card compared to a possible 7/10/Q/K Full House) so the next step is for Hal to determine what is Baku's strongest hand so he can prevent fucking it up. Because if he plays the strongest hand possible from 26, it'll eat at Baku's straight flush. He needs to know whether or not Baku needs the quad 7, quad 6, or the straight flush [the possible strong hands to be formed if your number is below average]. If that's the case then he'll probably go for 6 6 5 5 4 or 7 7 5 4 3 because either combination saves at least two strong hands for the last round (instead of going for 4 5 5 5 7 which destroys both quad 7 and straight flush) although both save the straight flush so it doesn't really matter story-wise. I wonder how he'd choose between the two though.
Coincidentally, this sort of deduction isn't available to Fukurou because if 63 is played then you're forced into a hand anyway so you can't make any plays. If 44 is played then it's near the average, it'd be difficult to make any inferences from it. However, it is possible for Lalo to play 44 and cause another calamity though (Q Q Q 4 4) but I feel like that is too insane even for Lalo. He doesn't know that Baku will try to do some insane shit in the first place. Going for another calamity in the 4th round just to try for a win (18 v 14 bios in the end) on the chance that Baku tries to play a card that would destroy his straight flush but ultimately avoids it because his ally is a genius, even if he (Lalo) destroys his other number with this sort of play. Yeah fuck that
Just to be explicit, the scheme is for Baku is "to lose round 4 and win round 5 because assuming no more increases in the bet, it's the only way for me to win the match but I need to be able to play 26 but still let the straight flush in 25 survive" and for Hal it's "Baku for some reason* needs to keep his strongest hand for the last round so I'll try to avoid ruining it in round 4"
[because he played such a shit hand first]
So I'm expecting 63 and 26 to be played, with Fukurou forming a K K K Q Q, and Hal forming either 6 6 5 5 4 or 7 7 5 4 3
Lalo probably thinks that he just needs to avoid a calamity
If he plays 44 (Q Q Q 4 4) and then Baku plays his straight flush (Lalo already thinks that Baku's ace card is a straight flush judging from chapter 442, page 10) he'll get fucked
On the other hand if he just plays K K K Q Q and then 10 10 10 7 7, if Baku plays the straight flush first, whatever Baku plays, the 10 Full House from Lalo (44) is the strongest possible hand in the remaining pool anyway.
If 63 vs 25 (Lalo loses round) -> 44 vs ??? (Lalo wins round and match)
If 63 vs ??? (Lalo wins because it's the strongest hand possible aside from a straight flush -> 44 vs 25 (Just fold in order to avoid calamity, 18 v 18 bios)
If 44 vs 25 (Lalo folds to avoid calamity, loses round) -> 63 vs ??? (Lalo can't form hand and loses round and match)
if 44 vs ??? (Assuming he wins, he loses the possibility of creating a hand in the last round) -> 63 vs 25 (Loses the round, 18 v 18 bios)
With playing 44 first, he is destroying his other number for no apparent reason. He'll most definitely play 63"
"If we assume no signals to be sent [to Hal], meaning Baku's only method of communication is by playing a card like you said, then here's the only thing I can imagine. When Hal gets told Baku's number by the referee, he'd wonder why Baku would play a number that is below the average of the possible remaining numbers just as Baku figured out earlier it should also be possible for Hal (so for this round, it's originally 40, then if 25/26 is played, the average of the remaining cards will be ~44). Why won't Baku choose that other number instead of 25/26, knowing the risk of running out of cards? Probably because he doesn't have a choice, that all his numbers are below that average, and from there he can easily deduce that Lalo's number are all above average.
Assuming 26 is played because I can't come up with any way for him to win if he goes for 25 first, the next thing he'd probably think about is if this is Baku's strongest hand or not, because if all of Baku's numbers are below that average, and thus all of Lalo's are above that, then 26 is a pretty shite card because the 6 Full House gets destroyed by a possible 10/Q/K or even 7 Full House [since Lalo's cards are all above average, these are the ones he can form]
If 26 is Baku's strongest hand, it probably means he's fucked no matter what. Which means that this round is lost anyway (because it's a shit card compared to a possible 7/10/Q/K Full House) so the next step is for Hal to determine what is Baku's strongest hand so he can prevent fucking it up. Because if he plays the strongest hand possible from 26, it'll eat at Baku's straight flush. He needs to know whether or not Baku needs the quad 7, quad 6, or the straight flush [the possible strong hands to be formed if your number is below average]. If that's the case then he'll probably go for 6 6 5 5 4 or 7 7 5 4 3 because either combination saves at least two strong hands for the last round (instead of going for 4 5 5 5 7 which destroys both quad 7 and straight flush) although both save the straight flush so it doesn't really matter story-wise. I wonder how he'd choose between the two though.
Coincidentally, this sort of deduction isn't available to Fukurou because if 63 is played then you're forced into a hand anyway so you can't make any plays. If 44 is played then it's near the average, it'd be difficult to make any inferences from it. However, it is possible for Lalo to play 44 and cause another calamity though (Q Q Q 4 4) but I feel like that is too insane even for Lalo. He doesn't know that Baku will try to do some insane shit in the first place. Going for another calamity in the 4th round just to try for a win (18 v 14 bios in the end) on the chance that Baku tries to play a card that would destroy his straight flush but ultimately avoids it because his ally is a genius, even if he (Lalo) destroys his other number with this sort of play. Yeah fuck that
Just to be explicit, the scheme is for Baku is "to lose round 4 and win round 5 because assuming no more increases in the bet, it's the only way for me to win the match but I need to be able to play 26 but still let the straight flush in 25 survive" and for Hal it's "Baku for some reason* needs to keep his strongest hand for the last round so I'll try to avoid ruining it in round 4"
[because he played such a shit hand first]
So I'm expecting 63 and 26 to be played, with Fukurou forming a K K K Q Q, and Hal forming either 6 6 5 5 4 or 7 7 5 4 3
Lalo probably thinks that he just needs to avoid a calamity
If he plays 44 (Q Q Q 4 4) and then Baku plays his straight flush (Lalo already thinks that Baku's ace card is a straight flush judging from chapter 442, page 10) he'll get fucked
On the other hand if he just plays K K K Q Q and then 10 10 10 7 7, if Baku plays the straight flush first, whatever Baku plays, the 10 Full House from Lalo (44) is the strongest possible hand in the remaining pool anyway.
If 63 vs 25 (Lalo loses round) -> 44 vs ??? (Lalo wins round and match)
If 63 vs ??? (Lalo wins because it's the strongest hand possible aside from a straight flush -> 44 vs 25 (Just fold in order to avoid calamity, 18 v 18 bios)
If 44 vs 25 (Lalo folds to avoid calamity, loses round) -> 63 vs ??? (Lalo can't form hand and loses round and match)
if 44 vs ??? (Assuming he wins, he loses the possibility of creating a hand in the last round) -> 63 vs 25 (Loses the round, 18 v 18 bios)
With playing 44 first, he is destroying his other number for no apparent reason. He'll most definitely play 63"
Pretty fucking long but yeah. Some parts are also irrelevant since it's like 7 chapters behind
like predicting the cards being played (63 vs 26) instead of any other combination. Also some bios end count is retarded because I didn't take into account any more bios to be consumed (I thought it'll just be the same rate of consumption for both) AND I just went ahead and assumed that it'll go down as a tie in the end with and Baku will win with some tricks with the meter as the final twist but with my most recent comment I tried to integrate the trick into the game so that the final twist is Hal's shenanigans up top forming the straight flush.
Oh, and I forgot to mention that it's all up in the air now because Baku folded. I don't know how that would affect the pool of remaining cards. Because if it doesn't affect it, then it doesn't matter what Hal played since Baku folded. The straight flush can still be formed. But if the cards are still consumed, then I stand by my theory.
If @Veshv is correct, that Hal made an invalid hand too, then it means that Hal didn't form either hand I was suggesting, disproving my theory. I don't like that development though because as of now, forming an invalid hand deliberately means Hal is aware of the straight flush. I don't see why he would go for the invalid hand instead of what I suggested since the goal is the same. Perhaps to avoid a calamity? Maybe if your hand is "invalid" you can't get hit with a calamity. If he formed a shit hand on purpose, to avoid ruining the straight flush, there's still a chance for a calamity. Yeah, maybe that's the reason. Maybe he formed a hand using all the cards that have been used up so far just to avoid a calamity. I dunno
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@Jonui
As for Fukurous motive to want Lalo take over Kakerou, I think it has more to do with Usogui than Hal. When he met with Shion, he was most likely aware of the information that Lalo is competing with Usogui for the right to challenge the leader. From his perspective, Usogui is someone who sacrificed a child in order to not play against him. And the current leader of Kakerou is someone who for some reason didn't purge such a person when he was supposed to. Between these two and Lalo, Lalo is the right choice.
@idle_af Isn't the reason Hal made an invalid hand simply because he didn't know what Usogui's last card is? He deducted that Usogui wants him to throw this hand in order to preserve the last hand, but he has no way of knowing what that hand is, meaning he has no way of knowing what cards not to use in this round to keep that hand. That's why he made an invalid hand, to make sure the last hand stays intact no matter what the cards are, meaning he made his hand in the current round from cards that were already used. Meaning no new cards (aside from the ones Fukorou choses) are used in this round.
Also, thanks to this chapter, I think I know now why Fukourou made a "mistake" in this round and used the same suit. It was instinct. He instinctively felt that something is wrong.
As for Fukurous motive to want Lalo take over Kakerou, I think it has more to do with Usogui than Hal. When he met with Shion, he was most likely aware of the information that Lalo is competing with Usogui for the right to challenge the leader. From his perspective, Usogui is someone who sacrificed a child in order to not play against him. And the current leader of Kakerou is someone who for some reason didn't purge such a person when he was supposed to. Between these two and Lalo, Lalo is the right choice.
@idle_af Isn't the reason Hal made an invalid hand simply because he didn't know what Usogui's last card is? He deducted that Usogui wants him to throw this hand in order to preserve the last hand, but he has no way of knowing what that hand is, meaning he has no way of knowing what cards not to use in this round to keep that hand. That's why he made an invalid hand, to make sure the last hand stays intact no matter what the cards are, meaning he made his hand in the current round from cards that were already used. Meaning no new cards (aside from the ones Fukorou choses) are used in this round.
Also, thanks to this chapter, I think I know now why Fukourou made a "mistake" in this round and used the same suit. It was instinct. He instinctively felt that something is wrong.
@Rooster
Yeah that's actually the simplest explanation, I don't know why that went over my head. In the one I suggested, there's still a 1 in 3 chance of failing. He doesn't know if it's the straight flush, the Quad 7, or the Quad 6. If he just creates a hand from the used pool, he doesn't risk anything. No 1 in 3 chance. Nice. I'm dumb.
Yeah that's actually the simplest explanation, I don't know why that went over my head. In the one I suggested, there's still a 1 in 3 chance of failing. He doesn't know if it's the straight flush, the Quad 7, or the Quad 6. If he just creates a hand from the used pool, he doesn't risk anything. No 1 in 3 chance. Nice. I'm dumb.