Date: 16 August 1945
Place: White House Oval Office
Gen. George Marshall, Chief of Staff: “Mr. President, we’ve gotten word that Japan has refused to surrender”
President Harry Truman: “Even after the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki?”
Gen. Marshall : “Even after that, I don’t know what they’re thinking, but I don’t believe that they have any idea of the risk they run by holding out.”
Pres. Truman: “<sigh> Okay, if they won’t surrender, then Operation Downfall is a go.”
Gen Marshall: “ We are at D-90 for Operation Olympic, the opening phase to seize the southern third of Kyushu for a staging area for the main operation, Operation Coronet, the invasion of Honshu, which is at D-150. Second and Sixth Armies are ready to start staging in Okinawa for Olympic’s opening phase. First, Third, Fouth and Fifth Armies are ready to receive transfer orders to the Pacific Theater.”
Truman: “What are the estimated casualties from all this?”
Marshall: “If we face the same level of opposition as we did in Okinawa, we’re looking at 500,000 to 750,000 for Olympic. The Japanese could lose over 20% of the population of Kyushu, about 1-2.5 million. For Coronet, invading forces could be seeing upward of 2-3 million casualties or more. Japan could lose about 5-10 Million people, both military and civilian.”
Truman: “God help us. Is there any way to reduce American casualties?”
Marshall: “We could go with Option K: Up to 15 “Fat Man” bombs targeted at the largest Japanese cities, pre-invasion.”
Truman: “What would be the result?”
Marshall: ‘We’re estimating that Japanese casualties could be as high as 40-55% of their population from the bombs, another 20-30% from starvation, cause by radioactive contamination of the soil and waters around Japan. American casualties could be reduced to a fifth or tenth of projections without Option K.”
Truma: “<sigh> Okay, General. We’ll go with Option K, set at D-135. I wonder if Japan would be able to survive as a nation after this. If their leadership only surrendered....”