Feels like a "Mashiba wins, receives career-ending injury" scenario with all these death flags.
This is what I'm imagining as well.
I feel like Morikawa CAN'T deprive Mashiba of the belt at this point, there's no narrative benefit to it. But it might be Mashiba's last fight anyway.
As long as Mashiba wins the fight and doesn't die, I'm fine with whatever. An injury would be sad but he has to lift the belt after that character development moment we just got.