@greatninja3 It's actually the opposite. The Japanese already understood how backwards they were since the time of the Date Maru expedition. The reason Japan closed their borders was because they KNEW everyone else was more advanced than they were. It just didn't click back then that being behind the curve was dangerous. The Tokugawa leadership was more worried that continued exposure to the outside world would breed discontent in backwards and economically weak Japan. This is the same reason North Korea closed itself up to the modern world. What made Japan open up wasn't the knowledge that they were backwards but the sudden understanding of their helplessness brought about by the Perry expedition. The elites were faced with the potential of a direct threat to their self-interest and this forced them to change their minds.
Additionally, a Japanese expansion without the Opium Wars would not have been possible. As Toyotomi Hideyoshi found out in the real timeline, no East Asian power could challenge the might of a unified China led by a competent emperor (Wanli in this case). China must first be taken out of the equation. In the real timeline this was made possible by the Daoguang emperor's stupidly conservative decision to stop Chinese internal modernization which led to the defeats of the Opium Wars. That opened the window of opportunity for Japan at just the right moment in history.
That window of opportunity might hypothetically appear in an alternate timeline where the ruler of Japan would just wait a few more years. Now, granted that Hideyoshi didn't have that option, but by 1600 the long decline of the Ming would have started with the withdrawal of the Wanli emperor from his imperial duties, leading to a 20-year period of chaotic administration and a weakening of the Ming army that would never be reversed. However, said hypothetical Japanese ruler would also need to contend with Nurhaci's Manchus by 1620. The window would then be in the 1610s, when Wanli would have been too old to be effective and Nurhaci hadn't grown powerful enough to stand in the way.
Additionally, a Japanese expansion without the Opium Wars would not have been possible. As Toyotomi Hideyoshi found out in the real timeline, no East Asian power could challenge the might of a unified China led by a competent emperor (Wanli in this case). China must first be taken out of the equation. In the real timeline this was made possible by the Daoguang emperor's stupidly conservative decision to stop Chinese internal modernization which led to the defeats of the Opium Wars. That opened the window of opportunity for Japan at just the right moment in history.
That window of opportunity might hypothetically appear in an alternate timeline where the ruler of Japan would just wait a few more years. Now, granted that Hideyoshi didn't have that option, but by 1600 the long decline of the Ming would have started with the withdrawal of the Wanli emperor from his imperial duties, leading to a 20-year period of chaotic administration and a weakening of the Ming army that would never be reversed. However, said hypothetical Japanese ruler would also need to contend with Nurhaci's Manchus by 1620. The window would then be in the 1610s, when Wanli would have been too old to be effective and Nurhaci hadn't grown powerful enough to stand in the way.
