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I’ve tried to run This scenario mentally , only for Me to fail spectacularly becꜷse there are so Many actors to think about , in a sense ; only wꜽ I can continuͤ this is by doing R.-p. — probably It will Never see the end of the war , nonetheless  I am proud of how It turned out , It’s pleasing to lꝏk at.
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The story :
1925 : The Mazurian Fishing incident ;
04 / 07
German Customs cutter I.f.g. Magdeburg boards Polish trawler Jan Sobieski in disputed Mazurian Lake zone. Warsaw files a 74-page Diplomatic protest.
04/14
Berlin replyies : " Pay the fine or stay ashore. ". Polish cabinet walks out of Trade-talks in danzig.

1926
Every capital unleashes Retaliatory tariffs. The Imperial gederation of germany issues Ordinance 491-B : any Rail-car entering from Polish-Ukrainian Customs posts must Under-go a 48 Hour Vermin inspection. The Common-wealth sejm counter-votes Statute C-11 : Transit tax on Empty German Rail-cars returning west.

1928
January–March
Central Statistical office in Bern circulates the " Continental Output Tables , 1927 ", recording a Mild contraction of Industrial production by 2.4 % across the Imperial federation of germany and a parallel fall of 3.1 % in the CwPn&U.
The Third Currency Reform conference meets in Copen-hagen. The Baltic union , Sweden , & denmark agree on a Narrow Exchange-rate band ( ± 0.5 % ) pegged to a composite " Northern Krone unit ".

December
Senior Civil servants from the FCt-ArSCu sign the Confidential Glasgow memorandum with the I.f.g. , promising Mutual consultation on Submarine & Cable security in the North sea.

1929
February
The republic of hungary passes the Danubian Water-ways act , granting Dutch Dredging firms a 50-year concession to deepen the Middle danube. The concession angers the principality of the danube , which sees It's Riparian toll revenue threatened ; Vienna's Diet issues a Diplomatic démarche.
June
The Baltic union commissions the Pärnu Naval Works to lay keels for four 3 300-ton Coastal Defence vessels financed by a 10-year Stockholm line of credit. Russian admiralty begins a Discrete Feasibility study on Mine-laying fields in the gulf of East baltic , citing " necessary strategic balance ".
December
The empire of iran joins the Trans-Caucasian Fuel syndicate with Russia & the Baltic Union , promising up to 1 400 000 barrels annually for Baltic refineries.

1930
January
FCt-ArSCu chancellor of the exchequer tables the Imperial Tele-communications Draft bill to integrate Caledonian & Sexonian Wireless boards.

May
La Troisième république and CwPn&U sign the Brest Military-Technical protocol : France will license 75 mm Field-gun Recoil springs in exchange for Polish nitrate shipments.
July
The confederation of russia completes It's 3rd Five-year Statistical reconnaissance : census shows ; population 196 000 000 , urbanisation 34.1 % , literacy 78.3 %.
September
The republic of hungary experiences the Győr Fronde : a coalition of Agrarian deputies blocks a Government Grain-price stabiliser in the National council. Cabinet resigns ; a Care-taker government headed by Prof. Miklós Győry secures a bridging loan from berlin , restoring Policy continuity by november.
December
FCt-ArSCu finalises the Dominion Shipping Equalisation accord with the Tyrrhenian federation , extending Reciprocal Port dues to Mediterranean routes.

1932
Diplomatic focus turns to the so-called " League for Baltic-Slavic Order Question ", a Warsaw-centric Cultural Terrorist organisation viewed with suspicion in berlin.

1933
05/04
Germany's Foreign ministry issues Note H-94 , demanding that CwPn&U " suspend " the LBSO within 90 days , alleging subversion in Silesian districts. Warsaw neither accepts nor rejects but requests clarifications ; German press interprets the reply as obstruction.
08/22
The republic of hungary , reassured by Danube principality's guarantees , re-enters the Lyon Transit Convention Tariff zone.

1933
01/03
German Customs police detain a train at gleiwitz carrying nitrates from lwów to lyon , citing Paper-work irregularities. Warsaw files a Stiff protest ; petrograd offers to re-route shipments via Baltic ports.
01/11
CwPn&U General staff orders the Kościuszko line ( Trench-and-wire belt ) placed on Full Alert status ; Frontier leave cancelled. Berlin activates Border Watch directive V-15 , calling up Corps District VI reservists.
1933/01/12
07 h 45 — Warsaw General staff ( G-2/Frontier ) acknowledges berlin's V-15 call-up : files " Memorandum L-404 ".
15 h 10 — Order Mobil-Instr. 18/33 signed by Marshal Piłsudski-Sikora : partial recall of 4 Frontier divisions ( approx. 57 000 reservists ) to Kościuszko Line sectors K-4 to K-7.
1933/01/13
Berlin Foreign Office , Ausw. Amt. , transmits Circular Note Z-131 to stockholm , berne , & Copen-hagen claiming Polish Troop movements violate the 1928 Rail-Verkehr statute.
Swedish Chargé d’affaires files It and immediately asks berlin whether " Z-131 " supersedes " H-94 " or not. No reply.
1933/01/14
Petrograd–Warsaw Back-channel ( code-name " Brest Wire " ) agrees an Informal Supply corridor : up to 14 Daily Freight slots on the Minsk–Baranavichy–Brest Main line , priority ; fertiliser & grain east-to-west , coal west-to-east.
Berlin Decrypt desk identifies the Traffic spike 6 hours later.
re :
1 Polish Customs corporal wounded , 3 German Feldpolizei claim " return shots ".
Incident logged , forgotten , then Head-lined in every Warsaw Evening paper.
1933/01/18
Scandinavian Mediation committee telegraphs both capitals : offers 3-day arbitration in Malmö.
Berlin answers " under consideration "; Warsaw answers " conditional on Stand-down ". In other words : no.
1933/01/19
Reich chancellery issues Reichs-Note G-17 : demands suspension of Kościuszko line works and LBSO shutdown within 48 hours. Warsaw rejects.
1933/01/20
Reichsrat votes 368 : 91 for a 38 500 000-mark " Extra-ordinary Defence credit ".
Defence Minister schulenberg calls It " insurance ".
1933/01/21
Warsaw gazettes Emergency act No. 34/33 : empowers government to requisition Rail Rolling-stock " for Frontier security ". Rail-workers' union files a protest.

1933/01/22
25 kg of gelignite drop Span 12/Track 2 of the Oder Rail bridge. 2 Watch-men killed , traffic halted 14 hours. German press blames Warsaw ; Warsaw's Military police points to Local Silesian separatists.
1933/01/23
FCt-ArSCu recalls It's Berlin and Warsaw envoys " for Strategic consultation ".
1933/01/25
Petrograd issues General directive 212-B : Western Military district to shift 2 Rifle corps to the Minsk–Vitebsk barracks " for Winter manoeuvres ".
1933/01/28
Munich Patriotic rally spirals into Anti-Polish pogrom in Neu-westend. 11 Shop-fronts smashed , 2 fatalities. Polish press calls It " State-sponsored hooliganism "; Berlin Police indict 47 Intoxicated thugs.
1933/02/02
Petrograd's Foreign commissariat telegram P-268 : any German advance beyond the 1921 Armistice line will " trigger Treaty-class measures " under the 1924 Brest protocol.
1933/02/03
French " Deuxième Bureau de l'État-major général " circulates " Note d’Observation 130 " predicting hostilities in 14 days.
1933/02/09
Fuel Depot Oppeln-nord goes up in flames — 9 dead , 38 injured.
Berlin investigators claim Polish Anarcho-syndicalists.
1933/02/10
Reichs-Note G-22 . 3 demands :
( 1 ) disband LBSO by 02/13 24 h ,
( 2 ) pay 112 000 000-mark reparations ,
( 3 ) pull Kościuszko garrisons back 20 km.
Warsaw replies through bern that requisites " violate Sovereign integrity" and proposes arbitration.
"commonwealth of the polish nation and ukraine"
look inside
most of ukraine is inside russia except the west

uhhhhh????

also wondering if the germans have deleted the poles from posen and shit
 

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