The Exiled Heavy Knight Knows How to Game the System - Vol. 13 Ch. 110

Dex-chan lover
Joined
Jan 28, 2019
Messages
2,102
Tbf, the odds to get 4 in a row is small, but looking at it from the perspective of singular draws (because that’s what she did), the odds to get an ace in each draw is not as small.

If anything the probability of rare item drops is probably smaller than getting an ace in a single draw.

Edit:
Mathematically, assuming the cards they use is what we know:
There are 52 cards, 6 has been used so 46 left in deck.
Luce’s first draw would be 4/46 to get an ace.
Second draw would be 3/45
3rd would be 2/44
4th would be 1/43

The combined odds for 4 cards in a row would be: 4/46 * 3/45 * 2/44 * 1/43 = 0.00061%
Now this is quite small.

However, her worst odds for a single draw in order to get an ace is only 1/43 = 2.32%
This isn’t that far from a rare drop in some games, even some gatcha games probably has worse probabilities.
 
Last edited:
Dex-chan lover
Joined
Aug 31, 2020
Messages
175
iu
 
Dex-chan lover
Joined
Jan 17, 2023
Messages
663
Tbf, the odds to get 4 in a row is small, but looking at it from the perspective of singular draws (because that’s what she did), the odds to get an ace in each draw is not as small.

If anything the probability of rare item drops is probably smaller than getting an ace in a single draw.

Edit:
Mathematically, assuming the cards they use is what we know:
There are 52 cards, 6 has been used so 46 left in deck.
Luce’s first draw would be 4/46 to get an ace.
Second draw would be 3/45
3rd would be 2/44
4th would be 1/43

The combined odds for 4 cards in a row would be: 4/46 * 3/45 * 2/44 * 1/43 = 0.0061%
Now this is quite small.

However, her worst odds for a single draw in order to get an ace is only 1/43 = 2.32%
This isn’t that far from a rare drop in some games, even some gatcha games probably has worse probabilities.
It makes me wonder how the luck stat affects stuff like this, because there's no way to quantify it even if we knew what her stats were.
 
Dex-chan lover
Joined
Jan 28, 2019
Messages
2,102
It makes me wonder how the luck stat affects stuff like this, because there's no way to quantify it even if we knew what her stats were.
Ikr. It’s hard to test, but I would imagine it’s a modifier for every RNG based event, hence singular draws actually got affected by this strongly because it comes into play at every draw (assuming it is truly random).
 
Group Leader
Joined
Aug 15, 2020
Messages
1,390
Is it cheating if their world works through rpg stat logic? I mean it's a natural thing in their world right?

Food for thought?
Last chapter said that everyone knew luck was a stat and could be manipulated so the casino owners just strategized and Cheated to still make a profit. Pretty sure this idiot would’ve pulled out some bigger cheats after luring Luce in with some early wins. He just never got the chance before she landed a critical hit.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top