Yancha Gal no Anjou-san - Vol. 4 Ch. 51 - I Don't Get Chita-san
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@Xystus this is actually a pretty well known paradox of statistics. But what it essentially boils down to is your first choice is made with 3 options. Then it’s paired down to 2 options. Your first choice will have a 1/3rd chance to be right, while your second choice is 1/2 to be right.
There was a pretty old British game show that had this choice system, but when it comes down to it, most people won’t change their first choice but the better chance is to switch at the second chance.
There was a pretty old British game show that had this choice system, but when it comes down to it, most people won’t change their first choice but the better chance is to switch at the second chance.
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@Xystus
So, I can sort of explain the Monty Hall problem better than the manga did.
1. There are two bitter gumballs and one sweet gumball. Chita asks Seto to pick one, and stops him before he eats it. She then reveals that one of the other two are bitter, and asks him if he wants to pick a different one.
2. Seto has a 1/3 chance of picking the sweet gumball initially, and a 2/3 chance of picking a bitter gumball.
3. If Seto picks the sweet gumball initially, Chita must reveal where one of the bitter gumballs is. Both of the other gumballs are bitter in this case, so she picks randomly.
4. However, if Seto picks a bitter gumball initially, Chita will reveal where the one remaining bitter gumball is.
Using this logic, revealing the location of one of the two bitter gumballs doesn't eliminate it from the game. Instead, Seto already had a 2/3 chance of initially choosing a bitter gumball. Since the other remaining gumball will be revealed to Seto 2/3 times each time he plays the same game, he is more likely to get the sweet gumball if he switches from his initial choice.
I hope that makes sense. 🤔
So, I can sort of explain the Monty Hall problem better than the manga did.
1. There are two bitter gumballs and one sweet gumball. Chita asks Seto to pick one, and stops him before he eats it. She then reveals that one of the other two are bitter, and asks him if he wants to pick a different one.
2. Seto has a 1/3 chance of picking the sweet gumball initially, and a 2/3 chance of picking a bitter gumball.
3. If Seto picks the sweet gumball initially, Chita must reveal where one of the bitter gumballs is. Both of the other gumballs are bitter in this case, so she picks randomly.
4. However, if Seto picks a bitter gumball initially, Chita will reveal where the one remaining bitter gumball is.
Using this logic, revealing the location of one of the two bitter gumballs doesn't eliminate it from the game. Instead, Seto already had a 2/3 chance of initially choosing a bitter gumball. Since the other remaining gumball will be revealed to Seto 2/3 times each time he plays the same game, he is more likely to get the sweet gumball if he switches from his initial choice.
I hope that makes sense. 🤔
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@Xystus The Monty Hall Problem is basically just fluffing around with probability and perceived odds with a false manipulation of choice. The main thing It never really becomes 1/2, it's still a 1/3 choice from the start granted you can switch midway and just seems like 1/2 at that point. The premise is that you have more chance of picking the bad item (2/3) and less chance of picking the good item. So when the opportunity arrives to switch you're 2 thirds of the time picked the bad item, then the host must then reveal the only remaining bad item. So switching in this situation (two thirds of the time this situation occurring) is the most preferable option and you get the good item; thus it's 66% chance with that method as opposed to staying with your first choice which is just a 33%.
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@Xystus When you pick a gum ball, it has a 1/3 chance of being sweet. You are then told that one of the other balls is bitter. The ball that was revealed as bitter can never have been sweet. The ball you picked still has the 1/3 of being sweet in terms of the whole situation, where as the bitter ball now has no chance of being sweet, giving the other unknown ball a 2/3 chance of being sweet.
The mistake people make is discounting the bitter ball once it is revealed, whereas what happens is that it's chance of being sweet is given to the other ball not initially chosen by you.
The mistake people make is discounting the bitter ball once it is revealed, whereas what happens is that it's chance of being sweet is given to the other ball not initially chosen by you.
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Chita knows anjou is in love, now if only seto knew.
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