@Nessen "Antoher country sees there's demand for food and kicks up food production". You're 100% right.
The MC did. Oh wait, that's "ermahgerd, agricultural revolution". Dude, there has to be a period between things starting to go wrong and people taking action about it. In that period, the one who noticed was the MC. Hey, maybe another kingdom is ALSO doing it, we just haven't heard it yet.
Also, yes, every country is at war, cause those in the backlines are supplying money and equipment to those fighting in the frontlines. The reparations you mention may as well cover clothing...
As for cause-effect...
You say "there is famine, therefore everyone is an idiot". I say "people see profit in clothing, therefore move production to clothing, therefore there's famine". See? Cause->effect.
It all depends on how you look at things. Being a super spy doesn't mean you CAN have every possible gadget you can think of. I can be a super well trained Black Ops 'Murican soldier, but I won't have a drone that turns invisible and infiltrates the target's home to one-shot him... So in your superspy example, I see a clear effect->cause.
Again, it depends on how you look at stuff.
Idk, I don't think you're necessarily completely wrong (in this chapter at least), but I do feel you're going too far with your assumptions and expectations. But well, perspectives.