@bythos
In actuality it is that simple. Power politics as depicted like this went like so:
Step 1) You don't have the guns == you're dead.
That's it. This would have been much better handled if it was obvious that the archduke had military backing of equal value to Ares. But that was not how this was described. That makes this a stupid move no matter how you look at it. So, if he does or doesn't remains to be seen. But not elaborating on it by now and also putting in all those people-cringing-all-over-Ares-when-he-walks-by scenes undermines this if it ever does arrive.
The bigger hole here though is being banished from the castle is exactly what the MC wanted to begin with. But will she go along that willingly? Or will she be angsty about it and get involved with all this? From the beginning she's been thinking one thing and doing the opposite which comes off as stupid.